Causal Inference Regarding Infectious Aetiology of Chronic Conditions: A Systematic Review

Background: The global burden of disease has shifted from communicable diseases in children to chronic diseases in adults. This epidemiologic shift varies greatly by region, but in Europe, chronic conditions account for 86% of all deaths, 77% of the disease burden, and up to 80% of health care expenditures. A number of risk factors have been implicated in chronic diseases, such as exposure to infectious agents. A number of associations have been well established while others remain uncertain. Methods and Findings: We assessed the body of evidence regarding the infectious aetiology of chronic diseases in the peer-reviewed literature over the last decade. Causality was assessed with three different criteria: First, the total number of associations documented in the literature between each infectious agent and chronic condition; second, the epidemiologic study design (quality of the study); third, evidence for the number of Hill's criteria and Koch's postulates that linked the pathogen with the chronic condition. Conclusions: Prevention and treatment of these five pathogens lend themselves as effective public health intervention entry points. By concentrating research efforts on these promising areas, the human, economic, and societal burden arising from chronic conditions can be reduced.