Optimizing dog population control strategies in Thailand using mathematical and economic modeling

A mathematical model was constructed to investigate dog population dynamics and explore the impact of population management and rabies prevention. We aimed to evaluate cost-effective sterilization and vaccination strategies for dog population control and rabies prevention in Thailand. The developed compartmental model was calibrated with dog population data from Lopburi province (between 2019 and 2022) and simulated five sterilization scenarios. These measures included a combined 80% coverage of the rabies vaccine and 20% coverage of a sterilization program among non-specific dog types. Our findings indicated that sterilization programs targeting female indoor, outdoor, and stray dogs may prove to be the most effective in reducing the total dog population above 50% over a five-year period, surpassing the efficacy of the current intervention. Furthermore, the cost-effectiveness analysis showed that the two female dog sterilization strategies were cost-saving compared to the current practice, as the total costs of sterilization and vaccination decreased over time due to the reduction in the dog population. In conclusion, targeting female dog sterilization could reduce the population and was cost-saving compared to current strategies. Further data to inform dog population demographic and available resources including manpower, rabies vaccine, sterilization toolkits, and related materials will be required to fully explore intervention accessibility and feasibility within the context of rabies prevention and control in Thailand.Author summary: Free-roaming dogs present a risk to community health, particularly in low- and middle-income countries where dog-mediated rabies remains a critical issue. Rabies control strategies basically integrate mass vaccination with sterilization programs to prevent and control both disease transmission and population growth. However, resource constraints often limit the effectiveness of these interventions. Mathematical modeling serves as an alternative tool for assessing the potential impact of such strategies and identifying cost-effective approaches without the financial burden of real-world implementation. In this study, we developed a mathematical model to analyze dog population dynamics in Thailand, with a focus on sterilization and vaccination programs. Our findings suggest that prioritizing the sterilization of female dogs can substantially reduce the overall dog population while demonstrating greater cost-effectiveness compared to non-specific sterilization programs. This modeling approach provides critical evidence to support informed decision-making in dog population management and rabies control efforts.