IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pmed00/1004819.html

Association of armed conflict and global measles cases: A structural equation modeling analysis of 193 countries from 2000 to 2023

Author

Listed:
  • Tyler Y Headley
  • Yesim Tozan

Abstract

Background: Global armed conflict and population displacement are increasing, yet their association with population health remains poorly understood. We developed and tested four theoretical models linking armed conflict, population displacement, and socioeconomic development to measles burden across 193 countries from 2000 to 2023. Methods and findings: We analyzed longitudinal country-level data comprising 4,632 country-year observations, combining fixed-effects panel regression and structural equation modeling (SEM). Observed variables included battle-related deaths (BRDs) and forcibly displaced population sizes, while socioeconomic development was modeled as a latent variable incorporating gross domestic product (GDP) per capita, life expectancy, and mean years of schooling. Outcomes were total measles cases and incidence per million population. All four constructed models demonstrated excellent fit (Comparative Fit Index [CFI] 0.991–0.996; Tucker–Lewis Index [TLI] 0.976–0.989; Root Mean Square Error of Approximation [RMSEA] 0.046–0.062). Higher contemporaneous BRDs were associated with higher measles cases (β = 0.17; 95% Confidence Interval [CI] [0.14, 0.20]; p

Suggested Citation

  • Tyler Y Headley & Yesim Tozan, 2026. "Association of armed conflict and global measles cases: A structural equation modeling analysis of 193 countries from 2000 to 2023," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 23(6), pages 1-22, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1004819
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004819
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1004819
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pmed.1004819&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pmed.1004819?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1004819. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosmedicine (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosmedicine/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.