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Risk factor analysis and creation of an externally-validated prediction model for perioperative stroke following non-cardiac surgery: A multi-center retrospective and modeling study

Author

Listed:
  • Yulong Ma
  • Siyuan Liu
  • Faqiang Zhang
  • Xuhui Cong
  • Bingcheng Zhao
  • Miao Sun
  • Huikai Yang
  • Min Liu
  • Peng Li
  • Yuxiang Song
  • Jiangbei Cao
  • Yingfu Li
  • Wei Zhang
  • Kexuan Liu
  • Jiaqiang Zhang
  • Weidong Mi

Abstract

Background: Perioperative stroke is a serious and potentially fatal complication following non-cardiac surgery. Thus, it is important to identify the risk factors and develop an effective prognostic model to predict the incidence of perioperative stroke following non-cardiac surgery. Methods and findings: We identified potential risk factors and built a model to predict the incidence of perioperative stroke using logistic regression derived from hospital registry data of adult patients that underwent non-cardiac surgery from 2008 to 2019 at The First Medical Center of Chinese PLA General Hospital. Our model was then validated using the records of two additional hospitals to demonstrate its clinical applicability. In our hospital cohorts, 223,415 patients undergoing non-cardiac surgery were included in this study with 525 (0.23%) patients experiencing a perioperative stroke. Thirty-three indicators including several intraoperative variables had been identified as potential risk factors. After multi-variate analysis and stepwise elimination (P

Suggested Citation

  • Yulong Ma & Siyuan Liu & Faqiang Zhang & Xuhui Cong & Bingcheng Zhao & Miao Sun & Huikai Yang & Min Liu & Peng Li & Yuxiang Song & Jiangbei Cao & Yingfu Li & Wei Zhang & Kexuan Liu & Jiaqiang Zhang & , 2025. "Risk factor analysis and creation of an externally-validated prediction model for perioperative stroke following non-cardiac surgery: A multi-center retrospective and modeling study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 22(3), pages 1-16, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1004539
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1004539
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