Estimating the health and macroeconomic burdens of tuberculosis in India, 2021–2040: A fully integrated modelling study

Background: Tuberculosis (TB) imposes a substantial health and economic burden on many populations and countries, but lack of funding has significantly contributed to several countries falling short of global TB reduction targets. Furthermore, existing assessments of the economic impact of TB do not capture the impacts on productivity and economic growth or the pathways by which epidemiology, demography, and the economy interact. Evidence is needed to answer how investment in treatment and control measures may help to mitigate the twin Indian health and macroeconomic burdens of TB over the coming decades. Methods and findings: We develop a fully integrated dynamic macroeconomic-health-demographic simulation model for India, the country with the largest national TB burden, and use it to estimate the macroeconomic return to investment in TB treatment. Conclusions: In this study, we find that even our least effective, but most accessible, revised TB treatment regimen has the potential to generate US$28bn in GDP gains. Clearly, the economic gains of increasing case detection rates and implementing improved TB treatment regimens hinges on both the feasibility and timeframe over which they can be achieved in practice. Nevertheless, the revised TB treatment regimen is readily accessible, and our results therefore demonstrate that there is room for undertaking substantial additional investment in control and treatment of TB in India, in order to reduce the suffering of TB patients while maintaining acceptable provision of resourcing elsewhere in the Indian economy. Marcus R. Keogh-Brown, Tom Sumner and colleagues estimate the health and macroeconomic burdens of tuberculosis in India between 2021 and 2040 in a fully-integrated dynamic macroeconomic-health-demographic simulation modelling study.Why was this study done?: What did the researchers do and find?: What do these findings mean?: