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The Kidney Failure Risk Equation for prediction of end stage renal disease in UK primary care: An external validation and clinical impact projection cohort study

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  • Rupert W Major
  • David Shepherd
  • James F Medcalf
  • Gang Xu
  • Laura J Gray
  • Nigel J Brunskill

Abstract

Background: The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) uses the 4 variables of age, sex, urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR), and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) to predict the risk of end stage renal disease (ESRD), i.e., the need for dialysis or a kidney transplant, within 2 and 5 years. Currently, national guideline writers in the UK and other countries are evaluating the role of the KFRE in renal referrals from primary care to secondary care, but the KFRE has had limited external validation in primary care. The study’s objectives were therefore to externally validate the KFRE’s prediction of ESRD events in primary care, perform model recalibration if necessary, and assess its projected impact on referral rates to secondary care renal services. Methods and findings: Individuals with 2 or more Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) eGFR values

Suggested Citation

  • Rupert W Major & David Shepherd & James F Medcalf & Gang Xu & Laura J Gray & Nigel J Brunskill, 2019. "The Kidney Failure Risk Equation for prediction of end stage renal disease in UK primary care: An external validation and clinical impact projection cohort study," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(11), pages 1-16, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1002955
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1002955
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