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Contribution of H. pylori and Smoking Trends to US Incidence of Intestinal-Type Noncardia Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Microsimulation Model

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  • Jennifer M Yeh
  • Chin Hur
  • Deb Schrag
  • Karen M Kuntz
  • Majid Ezzati
  • Natasha Stout
  • Zachary Ward
  • Sue J Goldie

Abstract

: Jennifer Yeh and colleagues examine the contribution of IHelicobacter pyloriI and smoking trends to the incidence of past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma. Background: Although gastric cancer has declined dramatically in the US, the disease remains the second leading cause of cancer mortality worldwide. A better understanding of reasons for the decline can provide important insights into effective preventive strategies. We sought to estimate the contribution of risk factor trends on past and future intestinal-type noncardia gastric adenocarcinoma (NCGA) incidence. Methods and Findings: We developed a population-based microsimulation model of intestinal-type NCGA and calibrated it to US epidemiologic data on precancerous lesions and cancer. The model explicitly incorporated the impact of Helicobacter pylori and smoking on disease natural history, for which birth cohort-specific trends were derived from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) and National Health Interview Survey (NHIS). Between 1978 and 2008, the model estimated that intestinal-type NCGA incidence declined 60% from 11.0 to 4.4 per 100,000 men,

Suggested Citation

  • Jennifer M Yeh & Chin Hur & Deb Schrag & Karen M Kuntz & Majid Ezzati & Natasha Stout & Zachary Ward & Sue J Goldie, 2013. "Contribution of H. pylori and Smoking Trends to US Incidence of Intestinal-Type Noncardia Gastric Adenocarcinoma: A Microsimulation Model," PLOS Medicine, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(5), pages 1-13, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pmed00:1001451
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1001451
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