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Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya

Author

Listed:
  • Linnea A Zimmerman
  • Celia Karp
  • Mary Thiongo
  • Peter Gichangi
  • Georges Guiella
  • Alison Gemmill
  • Caroline Moreau
  • Suzanne O Bell

Abstract

Fertility intentions are expected to decline due to the COVID-19 pandemic but limited empirical research on this topic has been conducted in sub-Saharan Africa. Longitudinal data from Kenya, with baseline (November 2019) and follow-up (June 2020) data, were used to 1) assess the extent to which individual-level fertility intentions changed, and 2) examine how security, specifically economic and health security, affected fertility intentions. The final sample included 3,095 women. The primary outcomes were change in quantum and timing. Exploratory analyses described overall changes within the sample and logistic regression models assessed sociodemographic and COVID-19 related correlates of change, specifically income loss at the household level, food insecurity, and ability to socially distance. Approximately 85% of women reported consistent fertility intentions related to both the number and timing of childbearing. No COVID-19-related factors were related to changing quantum intentions. Women who reported chronic food insecurity had 4.78 times the odds of accelerating their desired timing to next birth compared to those who reported no food insecurity (95% CI: 1.53–14.93), with a significant interaction by wealth. The COVID-19 pandemic did not lead to widespread changes in fertility intentions in Kenya, though the most vulnerable women may have accelerated their childbearing intentions.

Suggested Citation

  • Linnea A Zimmerman & Celia Karp & Mary Thiongo & Peter Gichangi & Georges Guiella & Alison Gemmill & Caroline Moreau & Suzanne O Bell, 2022. "Stability and change in fertility intentions in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in Kenya," PLOS Global Public Health, Public Library of Science, vol. 2(3), pages 1-18, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:plo:pgph00:0000147
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pgph.0000147
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    Cited by:

    1. Lazzari, Ester & Reimondos, Anna & Gray, Edith, 2022. "Childbearing desires before and after the Covid-19 outbreak in Australia: Who changed their attitudes toward having a first or additional child?," SocArXiv qbgmp, Center for Open Science.

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