Field to flight: Migration dynamics amidst climate driven crop yield fluctuations in Burkina Faso

Climate variability and climate change are among many interacting drivers of human migration, alongside social, geopolitical, and economic factors. Environmental stressors such as crop failures, rising sea levels, and water insecurity may contribute to mobility, but their influence is complex, indirect, and highly context-specific. Populations in Sub Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable due to high exposure to climate change and limited adaptive capacity. Although migration patterns in Africa are increasingly well documented, empirical evidence directly linking long-term migration trends to specific climate impacts, such as crop yield variability, remains limited. In this study, we analyzed longitudinal data from 196,320 individuals in rural Burkina Faso, collected through a Health and Demographic Surveillance System from 1994 to 2016. We used Prentice-Williams-Peterson regression to assess the association between annual weather-induced crop yield variations and individual-level migration events. We found that reductions in crop yields were strongly associated with increased out-migration, particularly among male farmers, individuals with lower household wealth, and those with prior migration experience. These findings highlight the role of climate related livelihood impacts on shaping migration patterns and highlight the importance of effective climate adaptation strategies that account for migration dynamics in vulnerable settings.