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A novel technique for nowcasting extreme rainfall events using early microphysical signatures of cloud development

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  • Sinan Nizar
  • Jobin Thomas
  • PJ Jainet
  • KP Sudheer

Abstract

Accurate forecasting of extreme rainfall events (EREs) at a regional scale with higher lead times is challenging due to the uncertainties in weather model predictions. This study introduces a novel technique to nowcast heavy- and extreme-rainfall events by analyzing early microphysical signatures in mesoscale convective clouds. The method primarily utilizes the cloud top temperature (T) - cloud effective radius (re) profiles derived using remote sensing. We estimate the probability of the occurrence of heavy- and extreme-rainfall events using a logistic regression model with attributes extracted from the T-re profile and cloud droplet size distribution. Our analysis indicates that the T-re profiles for normal-, heavy-, and extreme-rainfall events exhibit distinct microphysical characteristics, with a prominent diffusional zone during EREs. Applying this model to nowcast recent EREs in the southern Western Ghats (Kerala, India) demonstrates an overall skill score of 93% and a lead time of at least six hours, underscoring the effectiveness of the approach for nowcasting EREs at a regional scale.

Suggested Citation

  • Sinan Nizar & Jobin Thomas & PJ Jainet & KP Sudheer, 2025. "A novel technique for nowcasting extreme rainfall events using early microphysical signatures of cloud development," PLOS Climate, Public Library of Science, vol. 4(5), pages 1-20, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pclm00:0000497
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pclm.0000497
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