Mathematical modeling indicates that regulatory inhibition of CD8+ T cell cytotoxicity can limit efficacy of IL-15 immunotherapy in cases of high pre-treatment SIV viral load

Immunotherapeutic cytokines can activate immune cells against cancers and chronic infections. N-803 is an IL-15 superagonist that expands CD8+ T cells and increases their cytotoxicity. N-803 also temporarily reduced viral load in a limited subset of non-human primates infected with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV), a model of HIV. However, viral suppression has not been observed in all SIV cohorts and may depend on pre-treatment viral load and the corresponding effects on CD8+ T cells. Starting from an existing mechanistic mathematical model of N-803 immunotherapy of SIV, we develop a model that includes activation of SIV-specific and non-SIV-specific CD8+ T cells by antigen, inflammation, and N-803. Also included is a regulatory counter-response that inhibits CD8+ T cell proliferation and function, representing the effects of immune checkpoint molecules and immunosuppressive cells. We simultaneously calibrate the model to two separate SIV cohorts. The first cohort had low viral loads prior to treatment (≈3–4 log viral RNA copy equivalents (CEQ)/mL), and N-803 treatment transiently suppressed viral load. The second had higher pre-treatment viral loads (≈5–7 log CEQ/mL) and saw no consistent virus suppression with N-803. The mathematical model can replicate the viral and CD8+ T cell dynamics of both cohorts based on different pre-treatment viral loads and different levels of regulatory inhibition of CD8+ T cells due to those viral loads (i.e. initial conditions of model). Our predictions are validated by additional data from these and other SIV cohorts. While both cohorts had high numbers of activated SIV-specific CD8+ T cells in simulations, viral suppression was precluded in the high viral load cohort due to elevated inhibition of cytotoxicity. Thus, we mathematically demonstrate how the pre-treatment viral load can influence immunotherapeutic efficacy, highlighting the in vivo conditions and combination therapies that could maximize efficacy and improve treatment outcomes.Author summary: Immunotherapy bolsters and redirects the immune system to fight chronic infections and cancers. However, the effectiveness of some immunotherapies may depend on the level of pre-treatment inflammation and the corresponding presence of regulatory cells and immune checkpoint molecules that normally function to prevent immune overreaction. Here, we consider two previously published cohorts of macaques who were given the immunotherapeutic N-803 to treat Simian Immunodeficiency Virus, an analog of Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV). One cohort had low viral loads before treatment, and N-803 temporarily suppressed viral loads. The second cohort had high viral loads that did not consistently decrease with N-803 treatment. In this work, we demonstrate with a mathematical model how these two distinct outcomes can arise due only to the different viral loads and the corresponding immune activation and regulatory response. In the model, we find that the key limiting factor is the direct inhibition of the cytotoxic action of immune cells by immune checkpoint molecules. This model indicates that simultaneous blockade of immune checkpoint molecules may be necessary for effective application of N-803 for the treatment of HIV. This and similar models can inform the design of such combination therapies for cancer and chronic infection.