A systematic evaluation of deep learning methods for the prediction of drug synergy in cancer

One of the main obstacles to the successful treatment of cancer is the phenomenon of drug resistance. A common strategy to overcome resistance is the use of combination therapies. However, the space of possibilities is huge and efficient search strategies are required. Machine Learning (ML) can be a useful tool for the discovery of novel, clinically relevant anti-cancer drug combinations. In particular, deep learning (DL) has become a popular choice for modeling drug combination effects. Here, we set out to examine the impact of different methodological choices on the performance of multimodal DL-based drug synergy prediction methods, including the use of different input data types, preprocessing steps and model architectures. Focusing on the NCI ALMANAC dataset, we found that feature selection based on prior biological knowledge has a positive impact—limiting gene expression data to cancer or drug response-specific genes improved performance. Drug features appeared to be more predictive of drug response, with a 41% increase in coefficient of determination (R2) and 26% increase in Spearman correlation relative to a baseline model that used only cell line and drug identifiers. Molecular fingerprint-based drug representations performed slightly better than learned representations—ECFP4 fingerprints increased R2 by 5.3% and Spearman correlation by 2.8% w.r.t the best learned representations. In general, fully connected feature-encoding subnetworks outperformed other architectures. DL outperformed other ML methods by more than 35% (R2) and 14% (Spearman). Additionally, an ensemble combining the top DL and ML models improved performance by about 6.5% (R2) and 4% (Spearman). Using a state-of-the-art interpretability method, we showed that DL models can learn to associate drug and cell line features with drug response in a biologically meaningful way. The strategies explored in this study will help to improve the development of computational methods for the rational design of effective drug combinations for cancer therapy.Author summary: Cancer therapies often fail because tumor cells become resistant to treatment. One way to overcome resistance is by treating patients with a combination of two or more drugs. Some combinations may be more effective than when considering individual drug effects, a phenomenon called drug synergy. Computational drug synergy prediction methods can help to identify new, clinically relevant drug combinations. In this study, we developed several deep learning models for drug synergy prediction. We examined the effect of using different types of deep learning architectures, and different ways of representing drugs and cancer cell lines. We explored the use of biological prior knowledge to select relevant cell line features, and also tested data-driven feature reduction methods. We tested both precomputed drug features and deep learning methods that can directly learn features from raw representations of molecules. We also evaluated whether including genomic features, in addition to gene expression data, improves the predictive performance of the models. Through these experiments, we were able to identify strategies that will help guide the development of new deep learning models for drug synergy prediction in the future.