IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pkp/hassle/v10y2022i1p1-10id2176.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fertility and Household Welfare in Nigeria: A Time Series Econometric Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Ovikuomagbe Oyedele

Abstract

This study examines the effect of fertility levels on household welfare in Nigeria during the period from 1980 to 2020. Using data from the World Development Indicators for 2021, the estimation process began with a unit root test for the stationarity of the variables. A bounds cointegration test showed the presence of a long-run relationship between household consumption expenditure and fertility, but the result was inconclusive when real GDP per capita was used as a welfare proxy. The ARDL model was employed and the results showed that fertility had a negative, significant effect on household consumption per capita only in the short run. The effect was from previous years thereby showing a lagged effect. However, when welfare is measured using real GDP per capita, there were both short-run and long-run effects, such that Kuznets’ hypothesis of an inverted U-shaped relationship was obtained in the short run. In the long run, however, the relationship becomes U-shaped, implying that there is the possibility of a demographic dividend in the long run. Fertility policies must endeavor to control for the immediate or short-run negative effects of rising fertility rates and make deliberate plans to engage the future large working population in order to reap the possible demographic dividend.

Suggested Citation

  • Ovikuomagbe Oyedele, 2022. "Fertility and Household Welfare in Nigeria: A Time Series Econometric Approach," Humanities and Social Sciences Letters, Conscientia Beam, vol. 10(1), pages 1-10.
    • Handle: RePEc:pkp:hassle:v:10:y:2022:i:1:p:1-10:id:2176
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://archive.conscientiabeam.com/index.php/73/article/view/2176/3187
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://archive.conscientiabeam.com/index.php/73/article/view/2176/4903
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pkp:hassle:v:10:y:2022:i:1:p:1-10:id:2176. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Dim Michael (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://archive.conscientiabeam.com/index.php/73/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.