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Estimating Standard Error of Inflation Rate in Pakistan; A Stochastic Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Javed Iqbal

    (State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Karachi)

  • M. Nadim Hanif

    (State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) Karachi)

Abstract

We estimate standard errors (S.Es.) of month on month and year on year inflation in Pakistan based on data for the period of July 2001 to June 2010 using the stochastic approach as well as extended stochastic approach to index numbers. We develop a mechanism to estimate S.E. of period average headline inflation (rate) using these approaches. This mechanism is then applied to estimate S.Es. of 12-month average rate of inflation in Pakistan for July 2003 to June 2010. The systematic changes in the relative prices of different groups in the CPI basket for Pakistan are also estimated. The highest (positive) relative price inflation occurred in ‘food, beverages and tobacco’ group and the lowest (negative) for ‘recreation and entertainment’ group, during fiscal years 2001 to 2010.

Suggested Citation

  • Javed Iqbal & M. Nadim Hanif, 2012. "Estimating Standard Error of Inflation Rate in Pakistan; A Stochastic Approach," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 257-272.
  • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:51:y:2012:i:3:p:257-272
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    Keywords

    Estimation; Index Numbers; Inflation Rate; Standard Error;

    JEL classification:

    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C43 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Index Numbers and Aggregation
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation

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