IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Policy of Inflation Targeting in the Presence of Fiscal Deficit and External Debt: Opt or Not to Opt


  • M. Ali Kemal

    (Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, Islamabad)


The main task of the macroeconomic policy-makers is to control unemployment and inflation at the minimum possible level. Different policies have been tried to control inflation at its minimum possible level and inflation targeting is the most popular among them. It is the commitment to maintain inflation at the announced level and use interest rate as an instrument to control it if it is expected to diverge from the announced level. However in a higher ?dollar denominated debt? country Central Bank is reluctant to increase interest rate because it pressurises the foreign exchange market, which leads to exchange rate depreciation. If there is exchange rate pass through effect to prices, depreciation leads to increase in prices. Thus increase in interest rate does not decrease prices instead results in increase in prices. The two important linkages were tested in this study are (i) increase in real interest rate depreciates the currency, and (ii) depreciation in real exchange rate leads to increase in prices. Using VAR model we concluded that real exchange rate is not significantly associated to the real interest rate in the short run and exchange rate pass through effect to prices is not present in Pakistan

Suggested Citation

  • M. Ali Kemal, 2011. "Policy of Inflation Targeting in the Presence of Fiscal Deficit and External Debt: Opt or Not to Opt," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 841-852.
  • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:50:y:2011:i:4:p:841-852

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:50:y:2011:i:4:p:841-852. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Khurram Iqbal). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.