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A Dynamic Analysis of the Relationship among Human Development, Exports and Economic Growth in Pakistan


  • Muhammad Afzal

    (Department of Economics, University of the Punjab, Lahore)

  • A. Rauf Butt

    (School of Business and Economics, University of Management and Technology)

  • Hafeez Ur Rehman

    (Department of Economics, University of the Punjab, Lahore)

  • Ishrat Begum

    (Political Science, Queen Marry College, Lahore)


This study investigates the econometrically empirical evidence of both the short-run and long-run interrelationships among human development, exports and economic growth in an ARDL framework for Pakistan. This study also examines causal linkages among the said variables by applying the Augmented Granger Causality test of Toda-Yamamoto (1995). By using data on Pakistan’s real GDP, real exports and Human Development Index (HDI) for the period 1970-71 to 2008-09, three models have been estimated. The results show cointegration between economic growth, physical capital, real exports and human development when human development is taken as dependent variables. Furthermore, unidirectional Granger causality running from real GDP to real exports has been found in Bivariate, Trivariate and Tetravariate causality framework. The inclusion of HDI as a measure of human development reduces the physical capital share in real GDP whereas it improves the robustness of the regression model. Real GDP seems to provide resources to improve human development in only the long-run while human capital accumulation does not seem to accelerate real GDP both in the short -run and the long-run. The empirical results of the study do not support ‘export -led growth hypothesis ’ and human capital-based endogenous growth theory in case of Pakistan, however, it does support ‘growth-driven exports hypothesis ’ in case of Pakistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Muhammad Afzal & A. Rauf Butt & Hafeez Ur Rehman & Ishrat Begum, 2009. "A Dynamic Analysis of the Relationship among Human Development, Exports and Economic Growth in Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 48(4), pages 885-920.
  • Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:48:y:2009:i:4:p:885-920

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Javed, Zanib & Munir, Kashif, 2016. "Impact of Export Composition on Economic Growth in South Asia," MPRA Paper 71519, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item


    Human Development; Exports; Economic Growth; ARDL; Causality;

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development


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