IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this article or follow this journal

A Dynamic Analysis of the Relationship among Human Development, Exports and Economic Growth in Pakistan

  • Muhammad Afzal

    (Department of Economics, University of the Punjab, Lahore)

  • A. Rauf Butt

    (School of Business and Economics, University of Management and Technology)

  • Hafeez Ur Rehman

    (Department of Economics, University of the Punjab, Lahore)

  • Ishrat Begum

    (Political Science, Queen Marry College, Lahore)

This study investigates the econometrically empirical evidence of both the short-run and long-run interrelationships among human development, exports and economic growth in an ARDL framework for Pakistan. This study also examines causal linkages among the said variables by applying the Augmented Granger Causality test of Toda-Yamamoto (1995). By using data on Pakistan’s real GDP, real exports and Human Development Index (HDI) for the period 1970-71 to 2008-09, three models have been estimated. The results show cointegration between economic growth, physical capital, real exports and human development when human development is taken as dependent variables. Furthermore, unidirectional Granger causality running from real GDP to real exports has been found in Bivariate, Trivariate and Tetravariate causality framework. The inclusion of HDI as a measure of human development reduces the physical capital share in real GDP whereas it improves the robustness of the regression model. Real GDP seems to provide resources to improve human development in only the long-run while human capital accumulation does not seem to accelerate real GDP both in the short -run and the long-run. The empirical results of the study do not support ‘export -led growth hypothesis ’ and human capital-based endogenous growth theory in case of Pakistan, however, it does support ‘growth-driven exports hypothesis ’ in case of Pakistan.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Download Restriction: no

Article provided by Pakistan Institute of Development Economics in its journal The Pakistan Development Review.

Volume (Year): 48 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 885–920

in new window

Handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:48:y:2009:i:4:p:885-920
Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O.Box 1091, Islamabad-44000
Phone: (92)(51)9248051
Fax: (92)(51)9248065
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

No references listed on IDEAS
You can help add them by filling out this form.

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:48:y:2009:i:4:p:885-920. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Khurram Iqbal)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.