A Dynamic Analysis of the Relationship among Human Development, Exports and Economic Growth in Pakistan
This study investigates the econometrically empirical evidence of both the short-run and long-run interrelationships among human development, exports and economic growth in an ARDL framework for Pakistan. This study also examines causal linkages among the said variables by applying the Augmented Granger Causality test of Toda-Yamamoto (1995). By using data on Pakistan’s real GDP, real exports and Human Development Index (HDI) for the period 1970-71 to 2008-09, three models have been estimated. The results show cointegration between economic growth, physical capital, real exports and human development when human development is taken as dependent variables. Furthermore, unidirectional Granger causality running from real GDP to real exports has been found in Bivariate, Trivariate and Tetravariate causality framework. The inclusion of HDI as a measure of human development reduces the physical capital share in real GDP whereas it improves the robustness of the regression model. Real GDP seems to provide resources to improve human development in only the long-run while human capital accumulation does not seem to accelerate real GDP both in the short -run and the long-run. The empirical results of the study do not support ‘export -led growth hypothesis ’ and human capital-based endogenous growth theory in case of Pakistan, however, it does support ‘growth-driven exports hypothesis ’ in case of Pakistan.
Volume (Year): 48 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.pide.org.pk
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pid:journl:v:48:y:2009:i:4:p:885-920. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Khurram Iqbal)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.