IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Electoral cycles in Philippine fiscal and monetary policy


  • Daryl Patrick Evangelista

    (University of the Philippines School of Economics)

  • Philip Amadeus Libre

    (University of the Philippines School of Economics)


Filipino politicians are frequently characterized as being driven by office-seeking motives. Despite this, surprisingly little systematic evidence is available to support the electoral-cycle hypothesis in the Philippines. This paper tests the real-world relevance of the longstanding belief in election economics by using intervention analysis or interrupted time-series analysis, a version of the classical multiple regression model, to determine the impact of elections on economic policies and economic outcomes. Time-series regressions confirm the presence of political business cycles in measures of fiscal policy such as total government expenditures and public construction spending. However, monetary authorities show no inclination to engage in pre-electoral expansion on their own. They respond to higher money demand near election periods by adjusting the domestic and foreign components of the monetary base to stabilize the growth of monetary aggregates. The net effect of fiscal policy manipulations on measures of aggregate economic activity is found to be negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Daryl Patrick Evangelista & Philip Amadeus Libre, 2008. "Electoral cycles in Philippine fiscal and monetary policy," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 45(2), pages 119-159, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:45:y:2008:i:2:p:119-159

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    Download Restriction: no

    More about this item


    political business cycle; monetary policy; fiscal policy;

    JEL classification:

    • O23 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Development Planning and Policy - - - Fiscal and Monetary Policy in Development
    • P16 - Economic Systems - - Capitalist Systems - - - Political Economy of Capitalism
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:45:y:2008:i:2:p:119-159. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Reuben T. Campos). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.