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An official core inflation measure for the Philippines

Author

Listed:
  • Diwa C. Guinigundo

    (Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas)

Abstract

Many countries routinely publish a "core" or underlying inflation rate alongside the "headline" inflation rate. In February 2004, the National Statistics Office (NSO) began publishing an official rate of core inflation for the Philippines, defined as the rate of change of headline CPI after excluding selected food and energy items. This paper provides some background in the construction of the new measure and attempts a preliminary evaluation using a few simple statistical tests. The analysis suggests that, compared to alternative measures of core inflation (such as a trimmed mean and weighted median measure), the NSO core inflation measure is more stable but appears to be less correlated with future inflation. This implies that other core inflation measures may also provide useful additional information in the assessment of future price developments. Nevertheless, the NSO core inflation measure is an important step toward addressing the policy need to identify long-term or permanent movements in the path of inflation. The new series will also help build public understanding of both the inflation process in the Philippines and the medium-term orientation of macroeconomic policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Diwa C. Guinigundo, 2005. "An official core inflation measure for the Philippines," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 42(1), pages 37-53, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:42:y:2005:i:1:p:37-53
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    File URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/189/600
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    inflation; core inflation; Philippines;

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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