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Business cycles in the US and five ASEAN countries : are they related?


  • Hway-Boon Ong

    (Faculty of Management, Multimedia University, Selangor, West Malaysia)

  • Chin-Hong Puah

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Malaysia Sarawak, East Malaysia)

  • Muzafar Shah Habibullah

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, West Malaysia)


Given the inter-country linkages arising from technological advances in communication and transportation, this paper examines the interdependent relationships between the output of the world’s largest economy, the US, and those of five other ASEAN countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Based on results of the augmented VAR of the Granger non-causality test, the paper finds a weak interdependence between the US and the five ASEAN countries, but a strong interdependence among the ASEAN countries. The empirical findings also revealed bidirectional causality among ASEAN countries especially Malaysia and Singapore. As such, every ASEAN country has to consider the economic developments and policies of other ASEAN countries as their decisions could affect one another.

Suggested Citation

  • Hway-Boon Ong & Chin-Hong Puah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2004. "Business cycles in the US and five ASEAN countries : are they related?," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 57-66, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:41:y:2004:i:1:p:57-66

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    More about this item


    Granger non-causality; augmented-VAR; MWald test; business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries


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