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Business cycles in the US and five ASEAN countries : are they related?

Author

Listed:
  • Hway-Boon Ong

    (Faculty of Management, Multimedia University, Selangor, West Malaysia)

  • Chin-Hong Puah

    (Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Malaysia Sarawak, East Malaysia)

  • Muzafar Shah Habibullah

    (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management, Universiti Putra Malaysia, Selangor, West Malaysia)

Abstract

Given the inter-country linkages arising from technological advances in communication and transportation, this paper examines the interdependent relationships between the output of the world’s largest economy, the US, and those of five other ASEAN countries, namely, Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Singapore and Thailand. Based on results of the augmented VAR of the Granger non-causality test, the paper finds a weak interdependence between the US and the five ASEAN countries, but a strong interdependence among the ASEAN countries. The empirical findings also revealed bidirectional causality among ASEAN countries especially Malaysia and Singapore. As such, every ASEAN country has to consider the economic developments and policies of other ASEAN countries as their decisions could affect one another.

Suggested Citation

  • Hway-Boon Ong & Chin-Hong Puah & Muzafar Shah Habibullah, 2004. "Business cycles in the US and five ASEAN countries : are they related?," Philippine Review of Economics, University of the Philippines School of Economics and Philippine Economic Society, vol. 41(1), pages 57-66, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:phs:prejrn:v:41:y:2004:i:1:p:57-66
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    File URL: http://pre.econ.upd.edu.ph/index.php/pre/article/view/167/586
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Svensson, Lars E. O., 1999. "Inflation targeting as a monetary policy rule," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 607-654, June.
    2. Sargent, Thomas J & Wallace, Neil, 1973. "The Stability of Models of Money and Growth with Perfect Foresight," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(6), pages 1043-1048, November.
    3. Jeffrey A. Frankel, 1995. "Financial Markets and Monetary Policy," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262061740, January.
    4. George A. Kahn & Klara Parrish, 1998. "Conducting monetary policy with inflation targets," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, issue Q III, pages 5-32.
    5. Barro, Robert J, 1978. "Unanticipated Money, Output, and the Price Level in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 86(4), pages 549-580, August.
    6. Michael J. Dueker & Andreas M. Fischer, 1998. "A guide to nominal feedback rules and their use for monetary policy," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Jul, pages 55-63.
    7. Mervyn Allister King, 1998. "The Inflation Target Five Years On," FMG Special Papers sp99, Financial Markets Group.
    8. Fair, Ray C, 1978. "A Criticism of One Class of Macroeconomic Models with Rational Expectations," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 10(4), pages 411-417, November.
    9. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1977. "Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 85(3), pages 473-491, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Granger non-causality; augmented-VAR; MWald test; business cycles;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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