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Romania-Eu Actual and Potential Trade

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Ferragina

    (ISSM-CNR, Italy)

  • Giorgia Giovannetti

    (University of Florence, Department of Economics, and Italian Foreign Trade Commission, Italy)

  • Francesco Pastore

    (Second University of Napoli, Department of Law and Economics, Italy)

Abstract

This is a companion paper to Ferragina, Giovannetti and Pastore (2005) and focuses on Romania-EU actual and potential trade. The Romanian trade potential with five EU members (France, Germany, Italy, Spain and UK) is computed using an “out-of-sample” methodology for the period 1995-‘01. The coefficients are taken from panel estimators of the gravity equation relative to intra-EU15 trade. The analysis suggests the existence of an important unexploited trade potential with Romania, which, nonetheless, is not different in size from that of other CEECs. The potential to actual trade ratio ranges from 2.2 to 2.7 and is sharply declining, suggesting that further dramatic economic integration is to be expected in the near future.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Ferragina & Giorgia Giovannetti & Francesco Pastore, 2005. "Romania-Eu Actual and Potential Trade," Annals of the University of Petrosani, Economics, University of Petrosani, Romania, vol. 5, pages 117-124.
    • Handle: RePEc:pet:annals:v:5:y:2005:p:117-124
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