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Il dibattito sulla teoria delle aspettative in Italia (1960-1990) (The debate on the theory of expectation in Italy (1960-1990))

Author

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  • Guido Tortorella Esposito

    (Università degli Studi di Firenze - Dottorato di ricerca in Storia delle Dottrine Economiche)

Abstract

This paper aims at offering a host of Italian economists’ contributions on adaptive and rational expectations, published between 1960 and 1990, distinguished according to two different criteria: a) a first criterion considers the two kinds of expectations from the epistemological point of view, concluding that the theoretical differences between Monetarism and New Classical Macroeconomics (n m c) depend on different approaches to the calculation of expectations; b) according to the second criterion, both adaptive expectation and rational expectation are ad hoc hypotheses, employed respectively by Monetarists and by the n m c School in order to restore the primacy of the Walrasian general economic equilibrium approach over Keynesian economics on the explanation of the economic system and of its cycles. According to this interpretation, the rational expectation could be considered as a hypothesis constructed with a view to supporting the theoretical conclusions of the Monetarist School both in the short period and in the long one.

Suggested Citation

  • Guido Tortorella Esposito, 2003. "Il dibattito sulla teoria delle aspettative in Italia (1960-1990) (The debate on the theory of expectation in Italy (1960-1990))," Il Pensiero Economico Italiano, Fabrizio Serra Editore, Pisa - Roma, vol. 11(2), pages 57-79.
    • Handle: RePEc:pei:journl:v:11:y:2003:2:3:p:57-79
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    Keywords

    Aspettativa adattiva; aspettativa razionale; economisti italiani (Adaptive expectation; rational expectation; Italian economist);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • B29 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Other
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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