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Regla de Oro, sostenibilidad y regla fiscal contracíclica

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  • Félix Jiménez

    () (Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú - Departamento de economía)

Abstract

The current fiscal policy does not differentiate capital expenditure from current expenditure. Since the global deficit target is fixed according to the present fiscal policy rule, the non financial expenditure becomes pro cyclical, and the public investment is adjusted to meet the targeted deficit. As a result, the public investment has dramatically decreased which, in turn, has affected the international competitiveness and the economic and social development of the Peruvian society. This paper proposes: 1) change the public expenditure policy public investment by eliminating its pro cyclical bias; and 2) redefining the system of fiscal accounting. To meet this purposes the budget must be divided in two parts: the current budget with a saving or primary surplus target, and the investment expenditure based on a rule of directing the public debt only to finance this kind of expenditure over the economic cycle. This is the so called Public Investment Golden Rule. To this Golden Rule is added other according to which the ratio of public net debt must be sustainable during the economic cycle. Finally, it’s proposed to adopting the new IMF accounting system. The Golden Rule becomes pretty velar in the context of this new system. When the operational result becomes equal to cero, the net investment becomes equal to the public debt. Hence, the null operational result according to the new accounting system is the only one which is consistent with the Golden Rule.

Suggested Citation

  • Félix Jiménez, 2005. "Regla de Oro, sostenibilidad y regla fiscal contracíclica," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, issue 55-56, pages 197-238.
  • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucrev:y:2005:i:55-56:p:197-238
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    2. Granger, C. W. J. & Newbold, Paul, 1986. "Forecasting Economic Time Series," Elsevier Monographs, Elsevier, edition 2, number 9780122951831 edited by Shell, Karl.
    3. Adolfo Figueroa, 1991. "Transformación en la Agricultura de América Latina: Capitalismo y Campesinado," Capítulos de Libros PUCP / Chapters of PUCP books,in: La agricultura latinoamericana: crisis, transformaciones y perspectivas, edition 1 Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú.
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