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Inflación y precios industriales: Perú 1980-1990

Listed author(s):
  • Rodolfo Cermeño
  • Margott de la Cruz

    (Departamento de Economía - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú)

Explicar la dinámica de los precios industriales durante la ultima década, en la cual la economia peruana ha experimentado niveles inflacionarios extremadamante altos.La hipótesis es que, en tal contexto inflacionario, los precios industriales son determinados aplicando un margen de beneficios sobre los costos directos esperados e incluyendo el costo financiero. Complementariamente se asume que se forman expectativas adaptativas sobre los costos. Como consecuencia de ello, la inflación industrial en un periodo determinado es explicada no solo por las variaciones en los costos producidos en dicho período, sino también por la propia inflación industrial pasada. Es decir, la ecuación de precios industriales, que se deduce en base a dicho supuesto, presenta un componente inercial. Adicionalmente se propone la hipótesis que en los períodos en que se producen “shocks”. Los empresarios industriales elevan su mark-up, buscando a protección de sus ganancias reales futuras. Esto acentúa más el shock inflacionario y determina una contracción de la demanda. En el período postshock, para evitar una mayor recesión, los empresarios tienden a disminuir su margen de ganancias para incentivar la demanda vía reducción de precios. Los resultados empíricos parecen apoyar las hipótesis planteadas.

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File URL: http://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/economia/article/view/144/142
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Article provided by Fondo Editorial de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú in its journal Revista Economia.

Volume (Year): (1991)
Issue (Month): 27 ()
Pages: 171-208

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Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucrev:y:1991:i:27:p:171-208
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Av. Universitaria 1801, San Miguel, Lima, Perú

Phone: 626-2000 ext. 4950
Fax: 626-2874
Web page: http://departamento.pucp.edu.pe/economia/
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