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Sobre el concepto de causalidad en economía: el caso de la relación entre inflación y tipo de cambio en el Perú, 1950-1990

Listed author(s):
  • Mario D. Tello

    (Departamento de Economia-Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru)

El presente artículo reexpone el concepto de causalidad en economia. Este en esencia incorpora dos elementos básicos a toda ciencia. El primero es la existencia de leyes y/o modelos que tratan de explicar una realidad. El segundo es el poder de predicción de dichas leyes y/o modelos. En ausencia de una de ellas el concepto de causalidad es incompleto e inocuo. Tomando como base dicho concepto se investiga las relaciones entre inflación y tipo de cambio en el Perú entre 1950 y 1990. La evidencia empírica sugiere que estas relaciones en general han dependido y variado de acuerdo al regimen cambiario vigente en el Perú en las últimas cuatro decadas, En regímenes de tipo de cambio flexibles, el tipo de cambio parece seguir a la inflación y no a la inversa. De otro lado en regimenes de mini devaluaciones del tipo de cambio, la relación aparentemente es bicausal.

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File URL: http://revistas.pucp.edu.pe/index.php/economia/article/view/803/769
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Article provided by Fondo Editorial de la Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú in its journal Revista Economia.

Volume (Year): (1990)
Issue (Month): 26 ()
Pages: 9-55

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Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucrev:y:1991:i:26:p:9-55
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Phone: 626-2000 ext. 4950
Fax: 626-2874
Web page: http://departamento.pucp.edu.pe/economia/
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