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Sobre el concepto de causalidad en economía: el caso de la relación entre inflación y tipo de cambio en el Perú, 1950-1990


  • Mario D. Tello

    (Departamento de Economia-Pontificia Universidad Catolica del Peru)


El presente artículo reexpone el concepto de causalidad en economia. Este en esencia incorpora dos elementos básicos a toda ciencia. El primero es la existencia de leyes y/o modelos que tratan de explicar una realidad. El segundo es el poder de predicción de dichas leyes y/o modelos. En ausencia de una de ellas el concepto de causalidad es incompleto e inocuo. Tomando como base dicho concepto se investiga las relaciones entre inflación y tipo de cambio en el Perú entre 1950 y 1990. La evidencia empírica sugiere que estas relaciones en general han dependido y variado de acuerdo al regimen cambiario vigente en el Perú en las últimas cuatro decadas, En regímenes de tipo de cambio flexibles, el tipo de cambio parece seguir a la inflación y no a la inversa. De otro lado en regimenes de mini devaluaciones del tipo de cambio, la relación aparentemente es bicausal.

Suggested Citation

  • Mario D. Tello, 1990. "Sobre el concepto de causalidad en economía: el caso de la relación entre inflación y tipo de cambio en el Perú, 1950-1990," Revista Economía, Fondo Editorial - Pontificia Universidad Católica del Perú, issue 26, pages 9-55.
  • Handle: RePEc:pcp:pucrev:y:1991:i:26:p:9-55

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Enders, Walter & Falk, Barry, 1984. "A Microeconomic Test of Money Neutrality," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, pages 666-669.
    2. Blinder, Alan S, 1982. "Inventories and Sticky Prices: More on the Microfoundations of Macroeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 72(3), pages 334-348, June.
    3. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1975. "An Equilibrium Model of the Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 83(6), pages 1113-1144, December.
    4. Stanley Fischer, 1980. "On Activist Monetary Policy with Rational Expectations," NBER Chapters,in: Rational Expectations and Economic Policy, pages 211-247 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Starleaf, Dennis R. & Meyers, William H. & Womack, Abner W., 1985. "The Impact of Inflation on the Real Income of U.S. Farmers," Staff General Research Papers Archive 10858, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    6. Barro, Robert J., 1976. "Rational expectations and the role of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 1-32, January.
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    More about this item


    Causalidad; tipo de cambio; inflacion;

    JEL classification:

    • P24 - Economic Systems - - Socialist Systems and Transition Economies - - - National Income, Product, and Expenditure; Money; Inflation


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