Will policy target groups choose to withdraw from rural housing land? A survey in Chengdu, China

The Chinese government has implemented a policy for withdrawal from rural housing land (WRHL) to encourage villagers who own urban properties and rely little on their farmland to withdraw from their rural housing land. However, few studies have examined whether WRHL target groups choose to withdraw. Based on field survey data from Chengdu, China, this study used the binary logit model and mediation effect regression to explore the impact of farmland dependence and urban housing on villagers’ choices to withdraw from rural housing land. The results indicated that villagers who relied less on their farmland or had more urban housing were less likely to withdraw. From the perspective of impact mechanism, farmland dependence moderated the effects of urban housing, while expected value played a mediating role in the impact of farmland dependence and urban housing on villagers’ choices. In summary, the target groups were unwilling to withdraw from their rural housing land, contrary to policy expectations. This is mainly because villagers have a higher expected value of rural housing land, prefer to hold rural housing land as value-added assets for future benefits, which is essentially land speculation of the policy target groups. In light of the study’s findings, some policy implications are provided to policymakers.