Impact mechanism of agricultural industry agglomeration on labour outflow directions in China

In recent years, significant agglomeration in China’s agricultural industry has led to changes in the flow of various resources. Labour, as an important production resource, naturally flows in response to the development of agricultural industry agglomeration. This study focuses on the impact of agricultural industrial agglomeration on the direction of labour outflow in China and its mechanism of action, explores the heterogeneity of the direction of labour outflow in the four major regions of China. This study uses a time-individual fixed effects model and multiple regression analysis. The study uses panel data for 30 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan and Tibet) between 2011 and 2022. The study finds that agro-industrial agglomeration is significantly and negatively related to labour outflow, indicating that agglomeration reduces labour outflow by increasing local employment opportunities. Regional heterogeneity analysis shows that agglomeration in the eastern region significantly promotes intra-provincial cross-county outflows but has limited impact on cross-provincial outflows; agglomeration in the western region inhibits cross-provincial labour outflows; and the northeastern and central regions show complex heterogeneity characteristics. This suggests that the agro-industry agglomeration effect provides more employment opportunities locally, thus reducing labour outflow. In terms of regional heterogeneity, agro-industrial agglomeration in the eastern region promotes intra-provincial labour outflow. However, its positive correlation with outflow from the province is not significant. In contrast, the western region shows a negative correlation, with agricultural industrial agglomeration suppressing labour outflows, especially between counties within and outside the province. The northeast and central regions exhibit more complex dynamics. Based on this, the study suggests that the eastern region should use industrial agglomeration to promote intra-provincial labour mobility, the western region needs to balance economic development and ecological protection, and the northeastern and central regions should formulate targeted and differentiated policies.