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On reduced-form intensity-based model with ‘trigger’ events

Author

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  • Jia-Wen Gu

    (The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People’s Republic of China)

  • Wai-Ki Ching

    (The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, People’s Republic of China)

  • Tak-Kuen Siu

    (1] City University London, London, UK[2] Macquarie University, Sydney, Australia)

  • Harry Zheng

    (Imperial College, London, UK)

Abstract

Corporate defaults may be triggered by some major market news or events such as financial crises or collapses of major banks or financial institutions. With a view to develop a more realistic model for credit risk analysis, we introduce a new type of reduced-form intensity-based model that can incorporate the impacts of both observable ‘trigger’ events and economic environment on corporate defaults. The key idea of the model is to augment a Cox process with ‘trigger’ events. Both single-default and multiple-default cases are considered in this paper. In the former case, a simple expression for the distribution of the default time is obtained. Applications of the proposed model to price defaultable bonds and multi-name Credit Default Swaps are provided.

Suggested Citation

  • Jia-Wen Gu & Wai-Ki Ching & Tak-Kuen Siu & Harry Zheng, 2014. "On reduced-form intensity-based model with ‘trigger’ events," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 65(3), pages 331-339, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:65:y:2014:i:3:p:331-339
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Duffie, Darrell & Saita, Leandro & Wang, Ke, 2007. "Multi-period corporate default prediction with stochastic covariates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 635-665, March.
    2. Fan Yu, 2007. "Correlated Defaults In Intensity-Based Models," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 155-173.
    3. Shaked, Moshe & George Shanthikumar, J., 1987. "The multivariate hazard construction," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 241-258, May.
    4. Robert A. Jarrow & Stuart M. Turnbull, 2008. "Pricing Derivatives on Financial Securities Subject to Credit Risk," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 17, pages 377-409 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    5. Merton, Robert C, 1974. "On the Pricing of Corporate Debt: The Risk Structure of Interest Rates," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 29(2), pages 449-470, May.
    6. M. Davis & V. Lo, 2001. "Infectious defaults," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 382-387.
    7. Francis A. Longstaff & Arvind Rajan, 2008. "An Empirical Analysis of the Pricing of Collateralized Debt Obligations," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 529-563, April.
    8. Harry Zheng & Lishang Jiang, 2009. "Basket CDS pricing with interacting intensities," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 13(3), pages 445-469, September.
    9. Robert A. Jarrow & Fan Yu, 2008. "Counterparty Risk and the Pricing of Defaultable Securities," World Scientific Book Chapters,in: Financial Derivatives Pricing Selected Works of Robert Jarrow, chapter 20, pages 481-515 World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
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    Cited by:

    1. Jonathan Crook & David Edelman, 2014. "Special issue credit risk modelling," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 65(3), pages 321-322, March.

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