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Valuation under technological change

Author

Listed:
  • J Boston

    (University of Plymouth)

  • J Pointon

    (University of Plymouth)

Abstract

This paper presents a valuation model, which includes the possibility of a future change in technology that affects in the short term the level of net cash flows receivable. The user can consider the effects of such a change on the flows, depending on whether the company is an innovator itself, or a follower of the innovations of others. The model is based upon a number of assumptions. The cash flows before the technological breakthrough follow a geometric Brownian motion. The breakthrough is modelled by a Poisson jump. For the innovator, cash flows are boosted, then decline through competition. By contrast, for the technological follower the breakthrough has an immediate depressing effect on cash flows, but subsequent cash flows rise and are modelled by an upward logistic curve.

Suggested Citation

  • J Boston & J Pointon, 1999. "Valuation under technological change," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 50(3), pages 255-261, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:jorsoc:v:50:y:1999:i:3:d:10.1057_palgrave.jors.2600703
    DOI: 10.1057/palgrave.jors.2600703
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    Cited by:

    1. J Pointon & A El-Masry, 2007. "Competitive advantage and the cost of equity in international shipping," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 58(9), pages 1138-1145, September.
    2. G Angelou & A Economides, 2008. "A real options approach for prioritizing ICT business alternatives: a case study from broadband technology business field," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(10), pages 1340-1351, October.

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