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High-level politically connected firms, corruption, and analyst forecast accuracy around the world

Author

Listed:
  • Charles JP Chen

    (China Europe International Business School, Shanghai, P. R. China)

  • Yuan Ding

    (China Europe International Business School, Shanghai, P. R. China)

  • Chansog (Francis) Kim

    (City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, P. R. China)

Abstract

The international business (IB) literature has widely recognized political forces as major factors that complicate the strategic decisions of multinational enterprises (MNEs). Analyses by financial intermediaries can help to reduce the risk of information asymmetry caused by such factors. Using firm-level data from 17 jurisdictions between 1997 and 2001, this study investigates the association between a firm's high-level political connections and earnings forecasts made by financial analysts, an important group of financial intermediaries. We find that, after controlling for other determinants of forecast accuracy, analysts experience greater difficulty in predicting the earnings of firms with political connections than those of firms with no such connections. However, in jurisdictions in which corruption level is relatively high, earnings forecast accuracy is influenced more by a firm's political connections. Our findings contribute to the IB literature by demonstrating that political connections exacerbate the information asymmetry between investors and managers, and also that anti-corruption measures can curb the adverse effect of political connections on the corporate information environment. These findings bear the practical implication that MNEs must consider political issues when making resource allocation decisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Charles JP Chen & Yuan Ding & Chansog (Francis) Kim, 2010. "High-level politically connected firms, corruption, and analyst forecast accuracy around the world," Journal of International Business Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Academy of International Business, vol. 41(9), pages 1505-1524, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:jintbs:v:41:y:2010:i:9:p:1505-1524
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Cuervo-Cazurra, Alvaro, 2016. "Corruption in international business," Journal of World Business, Elsevier, vol. 51(1), pages 35-49.
    2. Alain Verbeke & Liena Kano, 2013. "The transaction cost economics (TCE) theory of trading favors," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 30(2), pages 409-431, June.
    3. repec:eee:jiaata:v:31:y:2018:i:c:p:37-51 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Di Guardo, Maria Chiara & Marrocu, Emanuela & Paci, Raffaele, 2016. "The effect of local corruption on ownership strategy in cross-border mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 69(10), pages 4225-4241.
    5. repec:eee:worbus:v:53:y:2018:i:2:p:209-221 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Jackowicz, Krzysztof & Kozłowski, Łukasz & Mielcarz, Paweł, 2014. "Political connections and operational performance of non-financial firms: New evidence from Poland," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 109-135.
    7. Jordan, Steven J. & Vivian, Andrew & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Forecasting market returns: bagging or combining?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 102-120.
    8. repec:spr:manint:v:55:y:2015:i:3:d:10.1007_s11575-014-0221-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Humphery-Jenner, Mark & Powell, Ronan, 2014. "Firm size, sovereign governance, and value creation: Evidence from the acquirer size effect," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 57-77.
    10. repec:eee:finlet:v:25:y:2018:i:c:p:90-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:spr:manint:v:57:y:2017:i:5:d:10.1007_s11575-017-0312-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Bader, Benjamin & Berg, Nicola & Holtbrügge, Dirk, 2015. "Expatriate performance in terrorism-endangered countries: The role of family and organizational support," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(5), pages 849-860.
    13. Sarmento, Joaquim Miranda & Renneboog, Luc & Verga-Matos, Pedro, 2017. "Measuring highway efficiency : A DEA approach and the Malquist index," Other publications TiSEM 23264815-321e-45a3-83ee-9, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    14. Godinez, Jose R. & Liu, Ling, 2015. "Corruption distance and FDI flows into Latin America," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 24(1), pages 33-42.
    15. Pantzalis, Christos & Park, Jung Chul, 2014. "Too close for comfort? Geographic propinquity to political power and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 57-78.
    16. Özcan Gül Berna & Gündüz Umut, 2015. "Political connectedness and business performance: evidence from Turkish industry rankings," Business and Politics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 41-73, April.
    17. repec:eee:jbrese:v:86:y:2018:i:c:p:83-95 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Boubakri, Narjess & Guedhami, Omrane & Mishra, Dev & Saffar, Walid, 2012. "Political connections and the cost of equity capital," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 541-559.
    19. Jain, Pankaj K. & Kuvvet, Emre & Pagano, Michael S., 2017. "Corruption’s impact on foreign portfolio investment," International Business Review, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 23-35.
    20. repec:pal:jintbs:v:49:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1057_s41267-017-0139-z is not listed on IDEAS

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