The Impact on the United States of the Rise in Energy Prices: Does the Source of the Energy Market Imbalance Matter?
This paper uses a variant of the IMF's Global Economy Model (GEM) to illustrate how the macroeconomic impact on the United States of the rise in energy prices since the end of 2003 may vary depending on the source of the energy market imbalance. If oil market supply-side factors are driving prices higher, GDP will be permanently lower than it otherwise would be. However, if higher energy prices reflect primarily increased demand due to rising labor supply or tradable sector productivity growth in emerging Asian economies, for example, then GDP in the United States could actually rise in the long run. This occurs because the United States receives some positive terms-of-trade effects coming through nonenergy tradable goods prices that offset the negative implications for GDP of permanently higher energy prices. IMF Staff Papers (2008) 55, 285–296. doi:10.1057/imfsp.2008.7; published online 8 April 2008
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 55 (2008)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ |
|Order Information:|| Postal: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Subscription Department, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, UK|
Web: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/pal/subscribe/index.html Email:
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:55:y:2008:i:2:p:285-296. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Daniel Foley)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.