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On the Accuracy of Some Past and Present Forecasts

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Listed:
  • Stanley Engerman

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The topic of this paper has been inspired by something of particular interest to Michael Mussa, something to which he made major and important contributions while at the IMF. The biannual World Economic Outlook, published since the 1980s under the auspices of the Research Department, has, as its purpose, the provision of "analysis and projections . . . Copyright 2005, International Monetary Fund

Suggested Citation

  • Stanley Engerman, 2005. "On the Accuracy of Some Past and Present Forecasts," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 52(si), pages 1-3.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:52:y:2005:i:si:p:3
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2006. "Synchronization of cycles," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, pages 59-79.
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    3. Sy, Amadou N.R., 2004. "Rating the rating agencies: Anticipating currency crises or debt crises?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(11), pages 2845-2867, November.
    4. Graciela Kaminsky & Saul Lizondo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1998. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 45(1), pages 1-48, March.
    5. Andrew Berg & Catherine Pattillo, 1999. "Are Currency Crises Predictable? A Test," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 46(2), pages 1-1.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Default, Currency Crises, and Sovereign Credit Ratings," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(2), pages 151-170, August.
    7. A. Berg & C. Pattillo, 1999. "What Caused the Asian Crises: An Early Warning System Approach," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 285-334, November.
    8. Goldfajn, Ilan & Valdes, Rodrigo O., 1998. "Are currency crises predictable?," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(3-5), pages 873-885, May.
    9. G. Ferri & L.-G. Liu & J. E. Stiglitz, 1999. "The Procyclical Role of Rating Agencies: Evidence from the East Asian Crisis," Economic Notes, Banca Monte dei Paschi di Siena SpA, vol. 28(3), pages 335-355, November.
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    13. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    14. Manuel De la Rocha & Roberto Perrelli & Christian B. Mulder, 2002. "The Role of Corporate, Legal and Macroeconomic Balance Sheet Indicators in Crisis Detection and Prevention," IMF Working Papers 02/59, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Catherine A Pattillo & Andrew Berg & Gian M Milesi-Ferretti & Eduardo Borensztein, 2000. "Anticipating Balance of Payments Crises--The Role of Early Warning Systems; The Role of Early Warning Systems," IMF Occasional Papers 186, International Monetary Fund.
    16. P.J.G. Vlaar, 1999. "Currency Crises Models for Emerging Markets," WO Research Memoranda (discontinued) 595, Netherlands Central Bank, Research Department.
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    18. Burkart, O. & Coudert, V., 2000. "Leading Indicators of Currency Crises in Emerging Economies," Working papers 74, Banque de France.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B10 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought through 1925 - - - General
    • B20 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - General

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