Assessing the accuracy of business‐level forecasts
SummaryThis article presents original work on some aspects of forecasting at the individual business‐ or firm‐level. In particular, two ways are suggested for assessing the accuracy of these forecasts based on the calculation of average percentage errors and the construction of a 95 per cent confidence interval. It is found that the quality of forecasts tend to become increasingly unreliable after two years and that the decay in forecast quality is inversely related to the frequency of the time series ‐ that is the less often a time series is updated/published the faster the deterioration in forecast quality.
Volume (Year): 5 (2011)
Issue (Month): 4 (April)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/|
|Order Information:|| Postal: Palgrave Macmillan Journals, Subscription Department, Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS, UK|
Web: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/pal/subscribe/index.html Email:
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:ecolmr:v:5:y:2011:i:4:p:119-134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Daniel Foley)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.