IDEAS home Printed from
   My bibliography  Save this article

Assessing the accuracy of business‐level forecasts


  • Pete Brodie

    (Office for National Statistics)

  • Tullio Buccellato

    (Office for National Statistics)

  • Eric Scheffel

    (Office for National Statistics)


SummaryThis article presents original work on some aspects of forecasting at the individual business‐ or firm‐level. In particular, two ways are suggested for assessing the accuracy of these forecasts based on the calculation of average percentage errors and the construction of a 95 per cent confidence interval. It is found that the quality of forecasts tend to become increasingly unreliable after two years and that the decay in forecast quality is inversely related to the frequency of the time series ‐ that is the less often a time series is updated/published the faster the deterioration in forecast quality.

Suggested Citation

  • Pete Brodie & Tullio Buccellato & Eric Scheffel, 2011. "Assessing the accuracy of business‐level forecasts," Economic & Labour Market Review, Palgrave Macmillan;Office for National Statistics, vol. 5(4), pages 119-134, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:ecolmr:v:5:y:2011:i:4:p:119-134

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL:
    File Function: Link to full text PDF
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL:
    File Function: Link to full text HTML
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item


    Access and download statistics


    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:ecolmr:v:5:y:2011:i:4:p:119-134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Rebekah McClure). General contact details of provider: .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.