IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/pal/assmgt/v26y2025i5d10.1057_s41260-025-00416-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Cointegration-based pairs trading: identifying and exploiting similar exchange-traded funds

Author

Listed:
  • Kezhong Chen

    (Cranfield University)

  • Constantinos Alexiou

    (Cranfield University)

Abstract

We examine the effectiveness of pairs trading using ETFs from 2000 to 2024, focusing on how cointegration stability affects profitability and risk. Analyzing 30 ETF pairs with different z-score thresholds, we find that lowering the threshold increases trading opportunities, boosting profits and Sharpe ratios but also raising volatility and drawdowns. Short trading windows, where cointegration holds, limit long-term profitability. While pairs trading captures short-term arbitrage, its success depends on cointegration stability. The study emphasizes the need for adaptive strategies, better pairs selection, and strong risk management for sustained profitability in changing markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Kezhong Chen & Constantinos Alexiou, 2025. "Cointegration-based pairs trading: identifying and exploiting similar exchange-traded funds," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 26(5), pages 464-488, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:26:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1057_s41260-025-00416-0
    DOI: 10.1057/s41260-025-00416-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1057/s41260-025-00416-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1057/s41260-025-00416-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to

    for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mark Cummins & Andrea Bucca, 2012. "Quantitative spread trading on crude oil and refined products markets," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 1857-1875, December.
    2. Binh Do & Robert Faff, 2012. "Are Pairs Trading Profits Robust To Trading Costs?," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 35(2), pages 261-287, June.
    3. Nicolas Huck, 2015. "Pairs trading: does volatility timing matter?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(57), pages 6239-6256, December.
    4. Nicolas Huck, 2015. "Pairs trading: does volatility timing matter?," Post-Print hal-01370246, HAL.
    5. Christian L Dunis & Richard Ho, 2005. "Cointegration portfolios of European equities for index tracking and market neutral strategies," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 6(1), pages 33-52, June.
    6. Gary W. Emery & Qingfeng (Wilson) Liu, 2002. "An analysis of the relationship between electricity and natural‐gas futures prices," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(2), pages 95-122, February.
    7. Xixin Cheng & Philip L.H. Yu & W.K. Li, 2011. "Basket trading under co-integration with the logistic mixture autoregressive model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(9), pages 1407-1419, July.
    8. Robert Engle & Clive Granger, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    9. Nicolas Huck & Komivi Afawubo, 2015. "Pairs trading and selection methods: is cointegration superior?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(6), pages 599-613, February.
    10. Bruce N. Lehmann, 1990. "Fads, Martingales, and Market Efficiency," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 1-28.
    11. David P. Simon, 1999. "The soybean crush spread: Empirical evidence and trading strategies," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(3), pages 271-289, May.
    12. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan & Titman, Sheridan, 1993. "Returns to Buying Winners and Selling Losers: Implications for Stock Market Efficiency," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 65-91, March.
    13. Hossein Rad & Rand Kwong Yew Low & Robert Faff, 2016. "The profitability of pairs trading strategies: distance, cointegration and copula methods," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(10), pages 1541-1558, October.
    14. Hakkio, Craig S. & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Cointegration: how short is the long run?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 571-581, December.
    15. Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
    16. Binh Do & Robert Faff, 2010. "Does Simple Pairs Trading Still Work?," Financial Analysts Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 66(4), pages 83-95, July.
    17. Paul Berhanu Girma & Albert S. Paulson, 1999. "Risk arbitrage opportunities in petroleum futures spreads," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(8), pages 931-955, December.
    18. Shi-Miin Liu & Chih-Hsien Chou, 2003. "Parities and Spread Trading in Gold and Silver Markets: A Fractional Cointegration Analysis," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(12), pages 899-911.
    19. Mahmoud Wahab & Richard Cohn & Malek Lashgari, 1994. "The gold‐silver spread: Integration, cointegration, predictability, and ex‐ante arbitrage," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(6), pages 709-756, September.
    20. Ser-Huang Poon & Clive W.J. Granger, 2003. "Forecasting Volatility in Financial Markets: A Review," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(2), pages 478-539, June.
    21. Niklas Ahlgren & Jan Antell, 2002. "Testing for cointegration between international stock prices," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(12), pages 851-861.
    22. Sayat R. Baronyan & İ. İlkay Boduroğlu & Emrah Şener, 2010. "Investigation Of Stochastic Pairs Trading Strategies Under Different Volatility Regimes," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 78(s1), pages 114-134, September.
    23. João Frois Caldeira & Gulherme Valle Moura, 2013. "Selection of a Portfolio of Pairs Based on Cointegration: A Statistical Arbitrage Strategy," Brazilian Review of Finance, Brazilian Society of Finance, vol. 11(1), pages 49-80.
    24. Mao Liang Li & Chin Man Chui & Chang Qing Li, 2014. "Is pairs trading profitable on China AH-share markets?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(16), pages 1116-1121, November.
    25. Nicolas Huck & Komivi Afawubo, 2015. "Pairs trading and selection methods: is cointegration superior?," Post-Print hal-01369852, HAL.
    26. Marco Avellaneda & Jeong-Hyun Lee, 2010. "Statistical arbitrage in the US equities market," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 10(7), pages 761-782.
    27. Brenner, Robin J. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1995. "Arbitrage, Cointegration, and Testing the Unbiasedness Hypothesis in Financial Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 30(1), pages 23-42, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Krauss, Christopher, 2015. "Statistical arbitrage pairs trading strategies: Review and outlook," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 09/2015, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    2. Marianna Brunetti & Roberta De Luca, 2023. "Pre-selection in cointegration-based pairs trading," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 32(5), pages 1611-1640, December.
    3. Marianna Brunetti & Roberta Luca, 2023. "Correction to: Pairs trading in the index options market," Eurasian Economic Review, Springer;Eurasia Business and Economics Society, vol. 13(1), pages 175-176, March.
    4. Flori, Andrea & Regoli, Daniele, 2021. "Revealing Pairs-trading opportunities with long short-term memory networks," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 295(2), pages 772-791.
    5. Marianna Brunetti & Roberta de Luca, 2022. "Sensitivity of profitability in cointegration-based pairs trading," Centro Studi di Banca e Finanza (CEFIN) (Center for Studies in Banking and Finance) 0090, Universita di Modena e Reggio Emilia, Dipartimento di Economia "Marco Biagi".
    6. Sánchez-Granero, M.A. & Balladares, K.A. & Ramos-Requena, J.P. & Trinidad-Segovia, J.E., 2020. "Testing the efficient market hypothesis in Latin American stock markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    7. Fernando Caneo & Werner Kristjanpoller, 2021. "Improving statistical arbitrage investment strategy: Evidence from Latin American stock markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4424-4440, July.
    8. Clegg, Matthew & Krauss, Christopher, 2016. "Pairs trading with partial cointegration," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 05/2016, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    9. Yen-Wu Ti & Tian-Shyr Dai & Kuan-Lun Wang & Hao-Han Chang & You-Jia Sun, 2024. "Improving Cointegration-Based Pairs Trading Strategy with Asymptotic Analyses and Convergence Rate Filters," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(5), pages 2717-2745, November.
    10. Tian-Shyr Dai & Yi-Jen Luo & Hao-Han Chang & Chu-Lan Kao & Kuan-Lun Wang & Liang-Chih Liu, 2024. "Asymptotic analyses for trend-stationary pairs trading strategy in high-frequency trading," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 63(4), pages 1391-1411, November.
    11. Matthew Clegg & Christopher Krauss, 2018. "Pairs trading with partial cointegration," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(1), pages 121-138, January.
    12. Hain, Martin & Hess, Julian & Uhrig-Homburg, Marliese, 2018. "Relative value arbitrage in European commodity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 140-154.
    13. Law, K.F. & Li, W.K. & Yu, Philip L.H., 2018. "A single-stage approach for cointegration-based pairs trading," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 177-184.
    14. Danni Chen & Jing Cui & Yan Gao & Leilei Wu, 2017. "Pairs trading in Chinese commodity futures markets: an adaptive cointegration approach," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 57(5), pages 1237-1264, December.
    15. Endres, Sylvia & Stübinger, Johannes, 2017. "Optimal trading strategies for Lévy-driven Ornstein-Uhlenbeck processes," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 17/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    16. Han, Chulwoo & He, Zhaodong & Toh, Alenson Jun Wei, 2023. "Pairs trading via unsupervised learning," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 307(2), pages 929-947.
    17. Firoozye, Nikan & Tan, Vincent & Zohren, Stefan, 2023. "Canonical portfolios: Optimal asset and signal combination," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    18. Stübinger, Johannes & Endres, Sylvia, 2017. "Pairs trading with a mean-reverting jump-diffusion model on high-frequency data," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 10/2017, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    19. Boming Ning & Prakash Chakraborty & Kiseop Lee, 2023. "Optimal Entry and Exit with Signature in Statistical Arbitrage," Papers 2309.16008, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2024.
    20. Yun Xiang & Shijie Deng, 2025. "Long-range dependence and asset return anomaly," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 346(1), pages 369-391, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pal:assmgt:v:26:y:2025:i:5:d:10.1057_s41260-025-00416-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.palgrave-journals.com/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.