Mind the Gap: Schooling, Informality, and Fiscal Externalities in Nepal

While increasing years of schooling has been a long-standing development priority, the associated fiscal costs and benefits have been less studied, because of a lack of appropriate data. Recently, an UNESCO-funded project measured subsidies, by levels of schooling, from all levels of government, in eight developing countries including Nepal. The household-level Nepal Living Standards Measurement Survey provides information to estimate the degree of formality, tax payments, and benefit receipts as a function of schooling years. Using a simple Mincer-like model, this study estimates the fiscal externality of an additional year of school. It finds that within primary school, fiscal benefits and costs, on the margin, are quite balanced, with subsidies close to the present value of future taxes minus benefits. At higher levels of schooling, however, marginal fiscal benefits exceed costs by 5 percent of per capita consumption. This contrasts with previous literature on social returns and assumptions underlying multilateral development goals.