Liberal Preferences and Conservative Policies: The Puzzling Size of Japan's Welfare State

In Japan—unlike, for example, the US—the word ‘welfare’ has a positive connotation and is regularly invoked in political speech. However, despite welfare's rhetorical popularity, Japan's public expenditure on welfare programs is low compared to European nations. The Japanese government is committed to keeping welfare program outlays below a certain percentage of government revenue despite the fact that survey data show that the majority of Japanese would prefer a ‘high-benefit/high-cost’ system to the current ‘low-benefit/low-cost’ system. Which demographic groups support having a high-benefit/high-cost welfare system? In terms of gender, men are more in favor than women. Among age groups, the middle-aged are the most supportive. Looking at differences across socioeconomic groups, highly educated and well-paid white-collar workers express the strongest support. The types of welfare programs people most want to see expanded are for elder care and childcare. Given that the middle class clearly prefers expanding welfare, it should be possible to reach a national consensus on universal principles that would form the basis of a new welfare state, which is needed to replace the ad hoc and inconsistent programs of today. To achieve this consensus, the public's distrust of the tax system must be overcome.