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Contingent Capital, Tail Risk, and Debt-Induced Collapse

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  • Nan Chen
  • Paul Glasserman
  • Behzad Nouri
  • Markus Pelger

Abstract

We study the design and incentive effects of contingent convertible debt. With contingent convertibles, the endogenous bankruptcy boundary can be at either of two levels: one with lower default risk or one at which default precedes conversion. An increase in debt moves the firm from the first regime to the second, a phenomenon we call debt-induced collapse. Setting the conversion trigger sufficiently high avoids this hazard. Given this condition, we investigate the effect of contingent capital and debt maturity on optimal capital structure, debt overhang, and asset substitution. We calibrate the model to large banks during the financial crisis. Received April 10, 2015; editorial decision March 20, 2017 by Editor Leonid Kogan.

Suggested Citation

  • Nan Chen & Paul Glasserman & Behzad Nouri & Markus Pelger, 2017. "Contingent Capital, Tail Risk, and Debt-Induced Collapse," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(11), pages 3921-3969.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:30:y:2017:i:11:p:3921-3969.
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    Cited by:

    1. Goncharenko, Roman & Ongena, Steven & Rauf, Asad, 2021. "The agency of CoCos: Why contingent convertible bonds are not for everyone," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    2. Borys Grochulski & Russell Wong, 2018. "Contingent Debt and Performance Pricing in an Optimal Capital Structure Model with Financial Distress and Reorganization," Working Paper 18-17, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond.
    3. Mendes, Layla dos Santos & Leite, Rodrigo de Oliveira & Fajardo, José, 2022. "Do contingent convertible bonds reduce systemic risk?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Martynova, Natalya & Perotti, Enrico, 2018. "Convertible bonds and bank risk-taking," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 35(PB), pages 61-80.
    5. Jang, Hyun Jin & Na, Young Hoon & Zheng, Harry, 2018. "Contingent convertible bonds with the default risk premium," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 77-93.
    6. Giovanni Calice & Carlo Sala & Daniele Tantari, 2020. "Contingent Convertible Bonds in Financial Networks," Papers 2009.00062, arXiv.org, revised Dec 2023.
    7. Tobias Niedrig & Helmut Gründl, 2015. "The Effects of Contingent Convertible (CoCo) Bonds on Insurers’ Capital Requirements Under Solvency II," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 40(3), pages 416-443, July.
    8. Olivier Courtois & Xiaoshan Su, 2020. "Structural Pricing of CoCos and Deposit Insurance with Regime Switching and Jumps," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 27(4), pages 477-520, December.
    9. Ye Li & Simon Mayer & Simon Mayer, 2021. "Money Creation in Decentralized Finance: A Dynamic Model of Stablecoin and Crypto Shadow Banking," CESifo Working Paper Series 9260, CESifo.
    10. Avdjiev, Stefan & Bogdanova, Bilyana & Bolton, Patrick & Jiang, Wei & Kartasheva, Anastasia, 2020. "CoCo issuance and bank fragility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(3), pages 593-613.
    11. Delphine Boursicot & Geneviève Gauthier & Farhad Pourkalbassi, 2019. "Contingent Convertible Debt: The Impact on Equity Holders," Risks, MDPI, vol. 7(2), pages 1-35, April.
    12. Li, Ping & Guo, Yanhong & Meng, Hui, 2022. "The default contagion of contingent convertible bonds in financial network," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    13. Franklin Allen & Xian Gu, 2018. "The Interplay between Regulations and Financial Stability," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 53(2), pages 233-248, June.
    14. Xia, Xin & Gan, Liu, 2020. "SME financing with new credit guarantee contracts over the business cycle," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 515-538.
    15. Hüser, Anne-Caroline & Hałaj, Grzegorz & Kok, Christoffer & Perales, Cristian & van der Kraaij, Anton, 2018. "The systemic implications of bail-in: A multi-layered network approach," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 81-97.
    16. Chia-Chien Chang & Min-Teh Yu, 2018. "Bank Contingent Capital: Valuation and the Role of Market Discipline," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 54(1), pages 49-80, August.
    17. Philippe Oster, 2020. "Contingent Convertible bond literature review: making everything and nothing possible?," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(4), pages 343-381, December.
    18. Himmelberg, Charles P. & Tsyplakov, Sergey, 2020. "Optimal terms of contingent capital, incentive effects, and capital structure dynamics," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    19. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Shahzad, Mohammad Rahim & Karim, Sitara & Assaf, Rima, 2023. "Tail risk transmission in technology-driven markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    20. Gupta, Aparna & Wang, Runzu & Lu, Yueliang, 2021. "Addressing systemic risk using contingent convertible debt – A network analysis," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 290(1), pages 263-277.
    21. Allen N. Berger & Charles P. Himmelberg & Raluca A. Roman & Sergey Tsyplakov, 2022. "Bank bailouts, bail‐ins, or no regulatory intervention? A dynamic model and empirical tests of optimal regulation and implications for future crises," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 51(4), pages 1031-1090, December.
    22. Anne G. Balter & Nikolaus Schweizer & Juan C. Vera, 2020. "Contingent Capital with Stock Price Triggers in Interbank Networks," Papers 2011.06474, arXiv.org.
    23. Chan, Stephanie & Wijnbergen, Sweder, 2017. "CoCo Design, Risk Shifting Incentives and Financial Fragility," ECMI Papers 12166, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    24. Zhao, Zhiming & Li, Shasha & Tang, Huiling, 2021. "Write-down bonds, credit risk and imperfect information," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    25. Chen, Lu & Li, Bingqing & Zheng, Wenyuan, 2024. "Pure risk, agency conflict, and hedging," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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