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Does the Market Understand Rating Shopping? Predicting MBS Losses with Initial Yields

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  • Jie (Jack) He
  • Jun (Q. J.) Qian
  • Philip E. Strahan

Abstract

We study rating shopping on the MBS market. Outside of AAA, losses are higher on single-rated tranches than on multi-rated ones, and yields predict future losses for single-rated tranches, but not for multi-rated ones. Conversely, ratings have less explanatory power for single-rated tranches. These results suggest that single-rated tranches have been "shopped," whereby pessimistic ratings never reach the market. For AAA-rated MBS, by contrast, 93% receive two or three such ratings, and those ratings agree 97% of the time. This ratings convergence suggests that agencies "cater" to investors, who cannot purchase a tranche unless it has multiple AAA ratings. Received January 22, 2014; accepted October 21, 2015 by Editor Andrew Karolyi.

Suggested Citation

  • Jie (Jack) He & Jun (Q. J.) Qian & Philip E. Strahan, 2016. "Does the Market Understand Rating Shopping? Predicting MBS Losses with Initial Yields," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(2), pages 457-485.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:29:y:2016:i:2:p:457-485.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhv067
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    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Liuyong & Wang, Rui & Chen, Zhenyi & Luo, Xingguo, 2020. "What determines the issue price of lease asset-backed securities in China?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    2. Kempf, Elisabeth, 2020. "The job rating game: Revolving doors and analyst incentives," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 41-67.
    3. Vink, Dennis & Nawas, Mike & van Breemen, Vivian, 2021. "Security design and credit rating risk in the CLO market," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    4. Jed J. Neilson & Stephen G. Ryan & K. Philip Wang & Biqin Xie, 2022. "Asset‐Level Transparency and the (E)valuation of Asset‐Backed Securities," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(3), pages 1131-1183, June.
    5. van Breemen, Vivian M. & Fabozzi, Frank J. & Vink, Dennis, 2022. "Intensified competition and the impact on credit ratings in the RMBS market," Working Paper Series 2691, European Central Bank.
    6. Sean Flynn & Andra Ghent, 2018. "Competition and Credit Ratings After the Fall," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(4), pages 1672-1692, April.
    7. Vu, Huong & Alsakka, Rasha & ap Gwilym, Owain, 2022. "Does competition improve sovereign credit rating quality?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    8. Francesco Sangiorgi & Chester Spatt, 2017. "Opacity, Credit Rating Shopping, and Bias," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(12), pages 4016-4036, December.
    9. Drago, Danilo & Gallo, Raffaele, 2018. "Do multiple credit ratings affect syndicated loan spreads?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 1-16.
    10. Solomon Y. Deku & Alper Kara & Artur Semeyutin, 2021. "The predictive strength of MBS yield spreads during asset bubbles," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 111-142, January.
    11. Liu, Wenzhen & Wu, Wenfeng, 2023. "Underwriter reputation and the pricing of securities: Evidence from asset-backed securities," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    12. Frank Fabozzi & Vivian M. Breemen & Dennis Vink & Mike Nawas & Austin Gengos, 2023. "How much do Investors Rely on Credit Ratings: Empirical evidence from the U.S. and E.U. CLO primary market," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 221-247, April.
    13. Deku, Solomon Y. & Kara, Alper & Marqués-Ibáñez, David, 2019. "Do reputable issuers provide better-quality securitizations?," Working Paper Series 2236, European Central Bank.
    14. Liu, Xiaojian & Chong, Beng Soon & Feng, Xiaozhi, 2023. "Does the market differentiate between investor-paid and issuer-paid ratings in the pricing of asset-backed securities?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Farkas, Miklós, 2021. "Competition, communication and rating bias," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 189(C), pages 637-656.
    16. Xianfeng Jiang & Frank Packer, 2017. "Credit ratings of domestic and global agencies: What drives the differences in China and how are they priced?," BIS Working Papers 648, Bank for International Settlements.
    17. Mathias Kronlund, 2020. "Do Bond Issuers Shop for Favorable Credit Ratings?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(12), pages 5944-5968, December.
    18. Jing Liu & Ilhyock Shim & Yanfeng Zheng, 2023. "Absolute blockchain strength? Evidence from the ABS market in China," BIS Working Papers 1116, Bank for International Settlements.
    19. Deku, Solomon Y. & Kara, Alper & Marques-Ibanez, David, 2022. "Bank reputation and securitization quality: European evidence," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PB).
    20. Deku, Solomon Y. & Kara, Alper & Zhou, Yifan, 2019. "Securitization, bank behaviour and financial stability: A systematic review of the recent empirical literature," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 245-254.

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