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Risk Premium Shocks Can Create Inefficient Recessions

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  • Sebastian Di Tella
  • Robert Hall

Abstract

We develop a simple flexible-price model of business cycles driven by spikes in risk premiums. Aggregate shocks increase firms’ uninsurable idiosyncratic risk and raise risk premiums. We show that risk shocks can create quantitatively plausible recessions, with contractions in employment, consumption, and investment. Business cycles are inefficient—output, employment, and consumption fall too much during recessions, compared to the constrained-efficient allocation. Optimal policy involves stimulating employment and consumption during recessions.

Suggested Citation

  • Sebastian Di Tella & Robert Hall, 2022. "Risk Premium Shocks Can Create Inefficient Recessions," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 89(3), pages 1335-1369.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:89:y:2022:i:3:p:1335-1369.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/restud/rdab049
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    Cited by:

    1. Khorrami, Paymon & Zentefis, Alexander K., 2025. "Segmentation and beliefs: A theory of self-fulfilling idiosyncratic risk," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).
    2. Goliński, Adam & Madeira, João & Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2025. "Return predictability, dividend growth, and the persistence of the price–dividend ratio," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 41(1), pages 92-110.
    3. Jursa, Lukáš & Janků, Jan, 2025. "From the core to the European periphery: Spillover effects of financial cycles," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    4. León-Ledesma, Miguel & Shibayama, Katsuyuki, 2023. "(Endogenous) Growth Slowdowns," CEPR Discussion Papers 18506, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Bartosz Maćkowiak & Mirko Wiederholt, 2025. "Rational Inattention and the Business Cycle Effects of Productivity and News Shocks," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 274-309, January.

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