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Risk, Time-Varying Second Moments and Market Efficiency

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  • Orazio P. Attanasio

Abstract

The paper addresses two topics. First, it nests the consumption and static CAPM in a unified framework. Second, it tests for market efficiency. The first test is based on the idea that different models price risk on the basis of the covariance with different benchmark portfolios. The test of market efficiency is based on the idea that excess returns should be predictable only if risk, and therefore second moments, are predictable. The empirical results show that the static CAPM performs better than the consumption CAPM and that the former model accounts for the effects of dividend yields on expected returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Orazio P. Attanasio, 1991. "Risk, Time-Varying Second Moments and Market Efficiency," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 479-494.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:58:y:1991:i:3:p:479-494.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tim Bollerslev, 2008. "Glossary to ARCH (GARCH)," CREATES Research Papers 2008-49, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    2. Jeyanthi Karuppiah & Cornelis A. Los, 2000. "Wavelet Multiresolution Analysis of High-Frequency FX Rates, Summer 1997," School of Economics Working Papers 2000-06, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
    3. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F. & Nelson, Daniel B., 1986. "Arch models," Handbook of Econometrics,in: R. F. Engle & D. McFadden (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 49, pages 2959-3038 Elsevier.
    4. Orazio P. Attanasio & James Banks & Sarah Tanner, 2002. "Asset Holding and Consumption Volatility," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(4), pages 771-792, August.
    5. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    6. ASGHAR, Zahid, 2008. "Energy–Gdp Relationship: A Causal Analysis For The Five Countries Of South Asia," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 167-180.
    7. repec:bla:irvfin:v:17:y:2017:i:2:p:263-288 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Emma M. Iglesias & Garry D. A. Phillips, 2012. "Estimation, Testing, and Finite Sample Properties of Quasi-Maximum Likelihood Estimators in GARCH-M Models," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(5), pages 532-557, September.
    9. LeBaron, Blake, 2003. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,: Philip Hans Franses and Dick van Dijk, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000, 296 pp., Paperback, ISBN 0-521-77965-0, $33, [UK pound]22.95, [," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 751-752.
    10. Yanan Li & David E. Giles, 2015. "Modelling Volatility Spillover Effects Between Developed Stock Markets and Asian Emerging Stock Markets," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 155-177, March.
    11. repec:eee:intfor:v:34:y:2018:i:1:p:45-63 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, January.
    13. Jorge Caiado, 2004. "Modelling And Forecasting The Volatility Of The Portuguese Stock Index Psi-20," Portuguese Journal of Management Studies, ISEG, Universidade de Lisboa, vol. 0(1), pages 3-21.
    14. BRIO, Esther B. & PEROTE, Javier, 2008. "Forecasting Market Crashes: Does Density Specification Matter?," Applied Econometrics and International Development, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 8(1), pages 53-58.
    15. Baur, Robert Frederick, 1992. "Overreaction in futures markets," ISU General Staff Papers 1992010108000010973, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    16. de Almeida, Daniel & Hotta, Luiz K. & Ruiz, Esther, 2018. "MGARCH models: Trade-off between feasibility and flexibility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 45-63.
    17. Shanken, Jay & Tamayo, Ane, 2012. "Payout yield, risk, and mispricing: A Bayesian analysis," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-152.
    18. Jay Shanken & Ane Tamayo, 2001. "Risk, Mispricing, and Asset Allocation: Conditioning on Dividend Yield," NBER Working Papers 8666, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
    20. Karuppiah, Jeyanthi & Los, Cornelis A., 2005. "Wavelet multiresolution analysis of high-frequency Asian FX rates, Summer 1997," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 211-246.
    21. Bessler, Wolfgang & Leonhardt, Alexander & Wolff, Dominik, 2016. "Analyzing hedging strategies for fixed income portfolios: A Bayesian approach for model selection," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 239-256.
    22. Lee, Tae-Hwy, 1995. "Disequilibrium and uncertainty in cointegrated systems: Some empirical evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 157-161, August.
    23. Olan T. Henry & Nilss Olekalns & Kalvinder Shields, 2004. "Time Variation And Asymmetry In The World Price Of Covariance Risk: The Implications For International Diversification," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 907, The University of Melbourne.

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