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Gasoline Prices and the Used Automobile Market: A Rational Expectations Asset Price Approach

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  • James A. Kahn

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of changes in gasoline price expectations on the market values of used automobiles. An asset model of automobile valuation is used to relate year-to-year changes in market values to changes in the present discounted value of gasoline expenses. Econometric evidence from data covering the years 1972 through 1981 substantially confirms the hypothesis of the model that a gasoline price shock causes relative price changes across automobile types in proportion to the differences in their rates of fuel consumption.

Suggested Citation

  • James A. Kahn, 1986. "Gasoline Prices and the Used Automobile Market: A Rational Expectations Asset Price Approach," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 101(2), pages 323-339.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:qjecon:v:101:y:1986:i:2:p:323-339.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ufuk Demiroglu & Caglar Yunculer, 2016. "Estimating light-vehicle sales in Turkey," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 16(3), pages 93-108.
    2. Eskeland, Gunnar S. & Mideksa, Torben K., 2008. "Transportation fuel use, technology and standards: The role of credibility and expectations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4695, The World Bank.
    3. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz, 2014. "A General Approach to Recovering Market Expectations from Futures Prices With an Application to Crude Oil," CEPR Discussion Papers 10162, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Michaelis, Laurie, 1997. "Transport sector-strategies markets, technology and innovation," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(14-15), pages 1163-1171, December.
    5. Jie Lin & Cynthia Chen & Debbie Niemeier, 2008. "An analysis on long term emission benefits of a government vehicle fleet replacement plan in northern illinois," Transportation, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 219-235, March.
    6. Galarraga, Ibon & Ramos, Ana & Lucas, Josu & Labandeira, Xavier, 2014. "The price of energy efficiency in the Spanish car market," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 272-282.
    7. Meghan R. Busse & Christopher R. Knittel & Jorge Silva-Risso & Florian Zettelmeyer, 2016. "Who is exposed to gas prices? How gasoline prices affect automobile manufacturers and dealerships," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 14(1), pages 41-95, March.
    8. Karl Storchmann, 2004. "On the Depreciation of Automobiles: An International Comparison," Transportation, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 371-408, November.
    9. Sallee, James M. & Slemrod, Joel, 2012. "Car notches: Strategic automaker responses to fuel economy policy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(11), pages 981-999.
    10. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2017. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 275-295, March.
    11. Amihai Glazer & Charles Lave, 1994. "How Regulations Can Succeed Where Taxes Do Not: An Examination of Automobile Fuel Efficiency," Public Economics 9406002, EconWPA.
    12. Baghestani, Hamid, 2015. "Predicting gasoline prices using Michigan survey data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 27-32.
    13. James M. Poterba, 1991. "Is the Gasoline Tax Regressive?," NBER Chapters,in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 145-164 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Eskeland, Gunnar S. & Feyzioglu, Tarhan N., 1997. "Is demand for polluting goods manageable? An econometric study of car ownership and use in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 423-445, August.
    15. Soren T. Anderson & Ian W. H. Parry & James M. Sallee & Carolyn Fischer, 2011. "Automobile Fuel Economy Standards: Impacts, Efficiency, and Alternatives," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 5(1), pages 89-108, Winter.
    16. Alquist, Ron & Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2013. "Forecasting the Price of Oil," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier.
    17. Hunt Allcott & Nathan Wozny, 2012. "Gasoline Prices, Fuel Economy, and the Energy Paradox," NBER Working Papers 18583, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Bruno De Borger & Jan Rouwendal, 2014. "Car User Taxes, Quality Characteristics, and Fuel Efficiency Household Behaviour and Market Adjustment," Journal of Transport Economics and Policy, University of Bath, vol. 48(3), pages 345-366, September.
    19. Soren T. Anderson & James M. Sallee, 2016. "Designing Policies to Make Cars Greener: A Review of the Literature," NBER Working Papers 22242, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    20. Aydin, Erdal, 2016. "Energy conservation in the residential sector : The role of policy and market forces," Other publications TiSEM b9cedba8-1310-4097-90fb-b, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    21. Anderson, Soren T. & Kellogg, Ryan & Sallee, James M., 2013. "What do consumers believe about future gasoline prices?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 66(3), pages 383-403.
    22. Zvi Griliches, 1991. "Hedonic Price Indexes and the Measurement of Capital and Productivity: Some Historical Reflections," NBER Chapters,in: Fifty Years of Economic Measurement: The Jubilee of the Conference on Research in Income and Wealth, pages 185-206 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Sallee, James M. & West, Sarah E. & Fan, Wei, 2016. "Do consumers recognize the value of fuel economy? Evidence from used car prices and gasoline price fluctuations," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(C), pages 61-73.
    24. Malani, Anup & Reif, Julian, 2015. "Interpreting pre-trends as anticipation: Impact on estimated treatment effects from tort reform," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C), pages 1-17.
    25. Shewmake, Sharon & Jarvis, Lovell, 2014. "Hybrid cars and HOV lanes," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 304-319.

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