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Trade finance matters: evidence from the COVID-19 crisis

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  • Banu Demir
  • Beata Javorcik

Abstract

This study documents a substantial decline in the exports of major trading nations taking place in March 2020. Accounting for product-specific seasonality and annual trends, the data suggest a drop by 38 per cent in France, about a quarter in Turkey and Germany, and 12 per cent in the US, relative to their historical averages. Detailed export data from Turkey, disaggregated by financing terms, show another striking pattern. Flows using bank intermediation which eliminates or reduces the risk of non-payment or non-arrival of prepaid goods, such as letters of credit or documentary collection, appear to have been much more resilient to the current downturn relative to flows using other financing terms. These findings suggest that access to trade finance is vital during times of heightened uncertainty.

Suggested Citation

  • Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik, 2020. "Trade finance matters: evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 36(Supplemen), pages 397-408.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxford:v:36:y:2020:i:supplement_1:p:s397-s408.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oxrep/graa034
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    Cited by:

    1. Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Yousaf, Imran & Karim, Sitara & Yarovaya, Larisa & Ali, Shoaib, 2023. "Tail-event driven NETwork dependence in emerging markets," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(C).
    2. Ping Ruan & Yung-Fu Huang & Ming-Wei Weng, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on Supply Chains: A Hybrid Trade Credit Policy," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-22, April.
    3. Amin,Mohammad & Viganola,Domenico, 2021. "Does Better Access to Finance Help Firms Deal with the COVID-19 Pandemic ? Evidence from Firm-Level Survey Data," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9697, The World Bank.
    4. Mohammad Amin & Filip Jolevski & Asif M. Islam, 2025. "What contributes to SME vs. large firm resilience to economic crisis in developing countries? A decomposition analysis based on the COVID-19 shock," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 69(6), pages 3511-3545, December.
    5. Fujiy,Brian C. & Ghose,Devaki & Khanna,Gaurav, 2024. "Production Networks and Firm-level Elasticities of Substitution," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10782, The World Bank.
    6. Matthieu Crozet & Banu Demir & Beata Javorcik, 2022. "International Trade and Letters of Credit: A Double-Edged Sword in Times of Crises," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 70(2), pages 185-211, June.
    7. Srivastava, Jagriti & Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal, 2021. "In-kind financing during a pandemic: Trade credit and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 111433, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Dec 2021.
    8. Bas, Maria & Fernandes, Ana & Paunov, Caroline, 2024. "How resilient was trade to COVID-19?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 240(C).
    9. Srivastava, Jagriti & Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal, 2021. "In-kind financing during a pandemic: Trade credit and COVID-19," MPRA Paper 108951, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    10. Taeil Kim & Sunghwa Park & Hanna Kim & Janghan Kwon, 2023. "Estimating the Impact of COVID-19 on International Trade: Cases of Major Countries Using the SUR Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(24), pages 1-17, December.
    11. de Lucio, Juan & Mínguez, Raúl & Minondo, Asier & Requena, Francisco, 2022. "Impact of Covid-19 containment measures on trade," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 766-778.
    12. Auboin, Marc & Bekkers, Eddy & De Quarti, Dario, 2023. "A novel framework to evaluate changes in access to and costs of trade finance," WTO Staff Working Papers ERSD-2023-01, World Trade Organization (WTO), Economic Research and Statistics Division.
    13. repec:ers:journl:v:xxiv:y:2021:i:special4:p:775-805 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Cristina Constantinescu & Ana Margarida Fernandes & Arti Grover & Stavros Poupakis & Santiago Reyes, 2022. "Globally Engaged Firms in the Covid-19 Crisis," CESifo Working Paper Series 9711, CESifo.
    15. Srivastava, Jagriti & Gopalakrishnan, Balagopal & Tharyan, Rajesh, 2024. "Product market shock, stakeholder relationships, and trade credit," The British Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 56(6).
    16. Apergis, Nicholas & Lau, Chi Keung & Xu, Bing, 2023. "The impact of COVID-19 on stock market liquidity: Fresh evidence on listed Chinese firms," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    17. Kazancoglu, Yigit & Ekinci, Esra & Mangla, Sachin Kumar & Sezer, Muruvvet Deniz & Ozbiltekin-Pala, Melisa, 2023. "Impact of epidemic outbreaks (COVID-19) on global supply chains: A case of trade between Turkey and China," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    18. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Furceri, Davide & Ganslmeier, Michael & Yang, Naihan, 2021. "Initial Output Losses from the Covid-19 Pandemic: Robust Determinants," CEPR Discussion Papers 15892, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Lea Borchert & Ralph De Haas & Karolin Kirschenmann & Alison Schultz, 2023. "Broken Relationships: De-Risking by Correspondent Banks and International Trade," CRC TR 224 Discussion Paper Series crctr224_2023_478, University of Bonn and University of Mannheim, Germany.
    20. Cuñat, Alejandro & Zymek, Robert, 2022. "The (structural) gravity of epidemics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    21. Jagriti Srivastava & Balagopal Gopalakrishnan, 2021. "In-kind financing during a pandemic: Trade credit and COVID-19," Working papers 473, Indian Institute of Management Kozhikode.
    22. Amin,Mohammad & Jolevski,Filip & Islam,Asif Mohammed, 2023. "The Resilience of SMEs and Large Firms in the COVID-19 Pandemic : A Decomposition Analysis," Policy Research Working Paper Series 10562, The World Bank.
    23. Tomasz Gigol & Katarzyna Kreczmanska-Gigol & Renata Pajewska-Kwasny, 2021. "Socially Responsible Leadership’s Impact on Stakeholder Management, Staff Job Satisfaction and Work Engagement," European Research Studies Journal, European Research Studies Journal, vol. 0(Special 2), pages 775-805.
    24. Marc Auboin & Eddy Bekkers & Dario De Quarti, 2023. "A Novel Framework to Evaluate Changes in Access to and Costs of Trade Finance," CESifo Working Paper Series 10445, CESifo.

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