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Revisiting the ‘great trade collapse’ with the endogenous input-choice model

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  • By Mika Saito
  • Ichiro Tokutsu

Abstract

We revisit the role of vertical specialization and supply constraints during the ‘great trade collapse’ with new data and a new model that allows us to resolve some of the conceptual and data limitations faced by previous studies. We find that (i) demand factors explain a smaller (than previously understood) fraction of the collapse in trade during 2008–9; and (ii) models tend to over-estimate (or under-estimate) the decline in the demand for domestic (or imported) inputs. These model errors are equivalent to an increase of about 4% in the export price premium, on average.

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  • By Mika Saito & Ichiro Tokutsu, 2015. "Revisiting the ‘great trade collapse’ with the endogenous input-choice model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 67(4), pages 1123-1145.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:67:y:2015:i:4:p:1123-1145.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/oep/gpv044
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