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The conditional indirect effect of commodity price shocks on economic growth in Africa through the moderation of official development assistance

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  • Jean Tony Ezako

Abstract

This article aims to assess the conditional indirect effect of commodity price shocks through the Official Development Assistance (ODA) on real output growth, to allow optimal allocation of aid to prevent the potential negative impacts of these shocks in African countries. We used 42 African countries, 18 low-income countries and 24 middle-income countries, and moderated mediation with the PROCESS MACRO to estimate the model. The results show that the conditional indirect effect of commodity price shocks (mediated by governance effectiveness and moderated by ODA) on real output growth is positive and significant. We recommend strengthening cooperation through development support while considering the actual needs of recipient countries, types of aid and the donor, the sector, modality and the channel chosen to transmit this support.

Suggested Citation

  • Jean Tony Ezako, 2025. "The conditional indirect effect of commodity price shocks on economic growth in Africa through the moderation of official development assistance," Oxford Open Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4, pages 1-002..
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ooecxx:v:4:y:2025:i::p:odaf002.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ooec/odaf002
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    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade
    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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