Anatomy of employment growth[‘Growth and unemployment’]

This paper studies net employment growth across 21 OECD economies since 1980, focusing on the wide range of experiences within the European Union. The initial composition of employment across sectors is relevant in a few countries, but can only partially account for cross–country differences in net employment growth. Institutions play a more important role. A policy package including low dismissal costs and low taxation is significantly associated with high net employment growth and can account for a substantial share of cross–country differences. While the Netherlands’ employment miracle is largely accounted for by an increase in part–time jobs for women aged 25–49 in the services sector, we find that in the whole sample part–time jobs largely replace full–time jobs, and temporary jobs replace permanent jobs, with small net effects on hours worked. Continental Europe did not increase employment as much as other OECD countries until the mid–1990s, but later appears to be staging a resurgence of employment growth. We argue that this resurgence is not merely cyclical, is likely related to reforms, and may well be there to stay.