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Fertility Beliefs and Outcomes: the Role of Relationship Status and Attractiveness

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  • Yifan Gong
  • Tyler Skura
  • Ralph Stinebrickner
  • Todd Stinebrickner

Abstract

Unique data from the Berea Panel Study provide new evidence about fertility outcomes before age thirty and beliefs about these outcomes elicited soon after college graduation. Comparing outcomes and beliefs yields a measure of belief accuracy. Individuals who are unmarried and not in relationships at age twenty-four are extremely optimistic about the probability of having children, while married individuals have very accurate beliefs. Novel attractiveness measures are central for understanding fertility beliefs and outcomes for females, but not for males. Marriage is a mechanism that is relevant for understanding differences in beliefs, outcomes and misperceptions across relationship and attractiveness groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Yifan Gong & Tyler Skura & Ralph Stinebrickner & Todd Stinebrickner, 2025. "Fertility Beliefs and Outcomes: the Role of Relationship Status and Attractiveness," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 135(668), pages 1410-1431.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:135:y:2025:i:668:p:1410-1431.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ej/ueae104
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