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Samuelson's Dictum and the Stock Market

Author

Listed:
  • Jeeman Jung
  • Robert J. Shiller

Abstract

Samuelson has offered the dictum that the stock market is "micro efficient" but "macro inefficient." That is, the efficient markets hypothesis works much better for individual stocks than it does for the aggregate stock market. In this article, we review a strand of evidence in recent literature that supports Samuelson's dictum and present one simple test, based on a regression and a simple scatter diagram, that vividly illustrates the truth in Samuelson's dictum for the U.S. stock market data since 1926.(JEL G14) Copyright 2005, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeeman Jung & Robert J. Shiller, 2005. "Samuelson's Dictum and the Stock Market," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 43(2), pages 221-228, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:43:y:2005:i:2:p:221-228
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/ei/cbi015
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    Cited by:

    1. Hideyuki Kamiryo, 2014. "Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition)," Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition), Better Advances Press, Canada, edition 2, volume 2, number 01 edited by Dr. Yisheng Huang, June.
    2. Laimutė Urbšienė & Andrius Bugajevas & Marekas Pipiras, 2016. "The Impact Of Investment Horizon On The Return And Risk Of Investments In Securities In Lithuania," Organizations and Markets in Emerging Economies, Faculty of Economics, Vilnius University, vol. 7(2).
    3. Hirshleifer, David & Hou, Kewei & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2007. "Accruals and Aggregate Stock Market Returns," MPRA Paper 5197, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Hideyuki Kamiryo, 2014. "Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition)," Earth Endogenous System: To Answer the Current Unsolved Economic Problems (Second Edition), Better Advances Press, Canada, edition 2, volume 2, number 02 edited by Yisheng Huang, June.
    5. Hirshleifer, David & Hou, Kewei & Teoh, Siew Hong, 2009. "Accruals, cash flows, and aggregate stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(3), pages 389-406, March.
    6. repec:bbz:fcpbbr:v:9:y:2012:i:4:p:51-86 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. repec:bis:bisqtr:1803j is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Goetzmann, Will & Le Bris, David & Pouget, Sébastien, 2017. "The Present Value Relation Over Six Centuries: The Case of the Bazacle Company," TSE Working Papers 17-794, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    9. Fredrik Hansen, 2013. "The efficient-markets hypothesis after the crisis: a methodological analysis of the evidence," Chapters,in: Before and Beyond the Global Economic Crisis, chapter 3, pages 55-71 Edward Elgar Publishing.
    10. Dmitri G. Markovitch & Peter N. Golder, 2008. "—Using Stock Prices to Predict Market Events: Evidence on Sales Takeoff and Long-Term Firm Survival," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(4), pages 717-729, 07-08.
    11. repec:eee:intfin:v:52:y:2018:i:c:p:134-151 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Dmitri G. Markovitch & Joel H. Steckel & Bernard Yeung, 2005. "Using Capital Markets as Market Intelligence: Evidence from the Pharmaceutical Industry," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(10), pages 1467-1480, October.
    13. George-Marios Angeletos & Zhen Huo, 2018. "Myopia and Anchoring," NBER Working Papers 24545, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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