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Seasonality and the Monetization of Federal Budget Deficits


  • Joines, Douglas H


Prior findings that federal government budget deficits promptly lead to increases in the monetary base are unreliable. These findings are due largely to inadequate treatment of seasonality in postwar quarterly data. Once seasonality is properly modeled, no further short-run relation is apparent. Theory suggests that there may be a long-run relation between deficits and money growth. If such a relation exists, the sample of postwar U.S. data is too small to identify it. Copyright 1990 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Joines, Douglas H, 1990. "Seasonality and the Monetization of Federal Budget Deficits," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 28(3), pages 413-441, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecinqu:v:28:y:1990:i:3:p:413-41

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