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Keynes, uncertainty and interest rates

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  • Brian Weatherson

Abstract

Uncertainty plays an important role in The General Theory, particularly in the theory of interest rates. Keynes did not provide a theory of uncertainty, but he did make some enlightening remarks about the direction he thought such a theory should take. I argue that some modern innovations in the theory of probability allow us to build a theory which captures these Keynesian insights. If this is the right theory, however, uncertainty cannot carry its weight in Keynes's arguments. This does not mean that the conclusions of these arguments are necessarily mistaken; in their best formulation they may succeed with merely an appeal to risk. Copyright 2002, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian Weatherson, 2002. "Keynes, uncertainty and interest rates," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 26(1), pages 47-62, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:cambje:v:26:y:2002:i:1:p:47-62
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    Cited by:

    1. Xiaoyu Deng & Jing Tian & Rong Chen, 2019. "Effect of Social Security System on Consumption through Income and Uncertainty: Evidence from China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, March.
    2. Pei-Tha Gan, 2019. "Economic uncertainty, precautionary motive and the augmented form of money demand function," Evolutionary and Institutional Economics Review, Springer, vol. 16(2), pages 397-423, December.

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