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A negative binomial model for time series of counts

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  • Richard A. Davis
  • Rongning Wu

Abstract

We study generalized linear models for time series of counts, where serial dependence is introduced through a dependent latent process in the link function. Conditional on the covariates and the latent process, the observation is modelled by a negative binomial distribution. To estimate the regression coefficients, we maximize the pseudolikelihood that is based on a generalized linear model with the latent process suppressed. We show the consistency and asymptotic normality of the generalized linear model estimator when the latent process is a stationary strongly mixing process. We extend the asymptotic results to generalized linear models for time series, where the observation variable, conditional on covariates and a latent process, is assumed to have a distribution from a one-parameter exponential family. Thus, we unify in a common framework the results for Poisson log-linear regression models of Davis et al. (2000), negative binomial logit regression models and other similarly specified generalized linear models. Copyright 2009, Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard A. Davis & Rongning Wu, 2009. "A negative binomial model for time series of counts," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(3), pages 735-749.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:biomet:v:96:y:2009:i:3:p:735-749
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/biomet/asp029
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    Cited by:

    1. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Dimitrakopoulos, Stefanos & Touche, Nassim, 2019. "Integer-valued stochastic volatility," MPRA Paper 91962, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 04 Feb 2019.
    2. repec:hrv:faseco:34650304 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Volodymyr Korniichuk, 2012. "Forecasting extreme electricity spot prices," Cologne Graduate School Working Paper Series 03-14, Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences.
    4. repec:bla:jtsera:v:38:y:2017:i:1:p:120-144 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. repec:eee:jmvana:v:158:y:2017:i:c:p:31-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:bla:jtsera:v:38:y:2017:i:6:p:880-894 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Rongning Wu & Yunwei Cui, 2014. "A Parameter-Driven Logit Regression Model For Binary Time Series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(5), pages 462-477, August.
    8. Jiwon Kang & Sangyeol Lee, 2014. "Parameter Change Test for Poisson Autoregressive Models," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(4), pages 1136-1152, December.
    9. repec:eee:jmvana:v:169:y:2019:i:c:p:110-129 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Aknouche, Abdelhakim & Bendjeddou, Sara, 2016. "Negative binomial quasi-likelihood inference for general integer-valued time series models," MPRA Paper 76574, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 03 Feb 2017.
    11. Vasiliki Christou & Konstantinos Fokianos, 2014. "Quasi-Likelihood Inference For Negative Binomial Time Series Models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 35(1), pages 55-78, January.
    12. Tianqing Liu & Xiaohui Yuan, 2013. "Random rounded integer-valued autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic process," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 54(3), pages 645-683, August.
    13. Ole E. Barndorff-Nielsen & Asger Lunde & Neil Shephard & Almut E.D. Veraart, 2014. "Integer-valued Trawl Processes: A Class of Stationary Infinitely Divisible Processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 41(3), pages 693-724, September.
    14. Cui, Yunwei & Zheng, Qi, 2017. "Conditional maximum likelihood estimation for a class of observation-driven time series models for count data," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 193-201.
    15. Kang, Jiwon & Lee, Sangyeol, 2014. "Minimum density power divergence estimator for Poisson autoregressive models," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 44-56.
    16. Wu, Rongning & Cao, Jiguo, 2011. "Blockwise empirical likelihood for time series of counts," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 102(3), pages 661-673, March.
    17. Shang, Zuofeng, 2012. "On latent process models in multi-dimensional space," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 82(7), pages 1259-1266.
    18. repec:spr:aistmt:v:71:y:2019:i:5:d:10.1007_s10463-018-0676-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    19. Zheng, Tingguo & Xiao, Han & Chen, Rong, 2015. "Generalized ARMA models with martingale difference errors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 189(2), pages 492-506.
    20. Wu, Rongning, 2012. "On variance estimation in a negative binomial time series regression model," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 145-155.

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