Asymptotics of sample tail autocorrelations for tail-dependent time series: phase transition and visualization[Tail dependence and indicators of systemic risk for large US depositories]

SummaryIn this article we develop an asymptotic theory for sample tail autocorrelations of time series data that can exhibit serial dependence in both tail and non-tail regions. Unlike with the traditional autocorrelation function, the study of tail autocorrelations requires a double asymptotic scheme to capture the tail phenomena, and our results do not impose any restrictions on the dependence structure in non-tail regions and allow processes that are not necessarily strongly mixing. The newly developed asymptotic theory reveals a previously undiscovered phase transition phenomenon, where the asymptotic behaviour of sample tail autocorrelations, including their convergence rate, can transition from one phase to another as the lag index moves past the point beyond which serial tail dependence vanishes. The phase transition discovery fills a gap in existing research on tail autocorrelations and can be used to construct the lines of significance, in analogy to the traditional autocorrelation plot, when visualizing sample tail autocorrelations to assess the existence of serial tail dependence or to identify the maximal lag of tail dependence.